Apr 24, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |||||||||
Updated: Thu Apr 24 12:50:38 UTC 2014 (![]() ![]() | |||||||||
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic | |||||||||
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 241246 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS MID MS VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH REGION TO ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN SPREAD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THURSDAY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...PROGRESSIVE WAVE TRAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER CONUS. MAIN CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE WILL BE STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS PERTURBATION SHOULD REACH WRN PORTIONS MO/AR BY 00Z. TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS INDIANA...CENTRAL KY AND MID TN TO NRN AL BY 12Z. RELATED SFC CYCLONE SHOULD EVOLVE FROM SERIES OF WEAK LOWS NOW LOCATED ALONG COLD FRONT FROM SWRN IA TO NRN OK...CONSOLIDATING/DEEPENING BY 00Z WHILE REACHING E-CENTRAL MO...THEN MOVING TO INDIANA AROUND END OF PERIOD. COLD FRONT -- NOW OVER WRN OK AND ARCHING SWWD AND WWD ACROSS AREA BETWEEN LBB-MAF -- SHOULD REACH S-CENTRAL MO...SWRN AR...E-CENTRAL TX AND S-CENTRAL TX BY 00Z...THEN BY 12Z...SRN INDIANA...NWRN AL...SERN LA AND NWRN GULF. SEPARATE/PREFRONTAL/LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT IN COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY AND SOME SFC DATA FROM PERMIAN BASIN OF W TX NEWD ACROSS NWRN FRINGES OF DFW METROPLEX TO S-CENTRAL AND E-CENTRAL OK AND ERN KS...MOVING SEWD 25-30 KT OVER TX AND EWD AT SIMILAR SPEEDS OVER OK/KS. ...MID MS VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH REGION TO ARKLATEX... MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVER OUTLOOK AREA THIS PERIOD ALONG AND AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...WITH MAJORITY OF SVR PROBABLE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING AS BANDS OF TSTMS SHIFT EWD ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA. DAMAGING TSTM WIND...SPORADIC LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. TSTM POTENTIAL BEGINS WITH ISOLATED/WEAK/ELEVATED ACTIVITY NOW OVER WRN PORTIONS MO/AR...LIKELY FOLLOWED BY MORE SUBSTANTIAL LINE OF TSTMS ALONG AFOREMENTIONED PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATTER ACTIVITY HAS ACCESS TO GREATER MOISTURE AND LIFT THAN CONVECTION FARTHER E...AND MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL NEAR SVR LEVELS THIS MORNING OVER ERN OK AND AR. PORTIONS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ENCOUNTER FAVORABLY DESTABILIZING SFC-BASED PARCELS FROM MIDDAY INTO AFTN...FARTHER E NEAR MS RIVER. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN BETWEEN THAT AND SFC COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS ALONG FRONT. FIELD OF STG SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT/DCVA AHEAD OF MID-UPPER TROUGH SHOULD OUTPACE SFC COLD FRONT TODAY AND BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER ADJOINING WARM SECTOR DURING AFTN PHASE OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING. THIS WILL DESTABILIZE AIR MASS SFC AND ALOFT...CONTERMINOUS WITH FAVORABLE MOIST ADVECTION TO CONTRIBUTE FURTHER TO BUOYANCY. BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS FCST TO RETURN NEWD RAPIDLY ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY...ULTIMATELY YIELDING PREFRONTAL SFC DEW POINTS 50S F OVER PORTIONS MID-MS VALLEY REGION...IL...WRN KY AND MID TN...WITH 60S F POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF AR...SRN MO...WRN TN AND MS. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS/CONVECTION MAY LIMIT PACE OF DIABATIC HEATING TODAY OVER SRN MO AND AR...FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CORRIDORS OF MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE...DECREASING NWD ACROSS MO/IL. BUOYANCY MAY INCREASE SWD OVER E TX AND LA...HOWEVER WEAKER LIFT AND LESSER DEEP SHEAR EACH CAST MORE UNCERTAINTY ONTO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...DURATION AND ORGANIZATION S OF ARKLATEX AREA. HENCE...GREATEST SVR PROBABILITIES ARE CONCENTRATED AS MAPPED. SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS TSTMS ENCOUNTER PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR OVER CENTRAL KY...MID TN AND NRN AL. ..EDWARDS/ROGERS.. 04/24/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z |