Apr 22, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |||||||||
Updated: Tue Apr 22 12:54:38 UTC 2014 (![]() ![]() | |||||||||
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic | |||||||||
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 221251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NWRN WY...SERN ID...SWRN MT... ...SUMMARY... THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AS THEY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA...NORTHWESTERN WYOMING AND SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO...INCLUDING YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...PROGRESSIVE AND FAIRLY HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER CONUS THIS PERIOD. NRN-STREAM TROUGH -- CURRENTLY OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES AND LOWER MI -- IS FCST TO MOVE EWD TO SERN ONT...NY AND PA BY 00Z. PROXIMAL/TRAILING PERTURBATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER BOUNDARY-WATERS REGION OF MN/ONT -- IS FCST TO DIG SEWD ACROSS LOWER MI BY 00Z. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME MAIN BASAL VORTICITY MAX FOR NRN APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLC SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERNIGHT. SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS -- INITIALLY OVER DEEP S TX AND MS -- WILL BECOME BETTER-PHASED TODAY. BY 00Z...ASSOCIATED VORTICITY AXIS SHOULD EXTEND FROM SC ACROSS FL PANHANDLE TO NWRN GULF...THEN SW-NE ACROSS FL PENINSULA BY 12Z. UPSTREAM...MAJOR/HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND OVER W COAST STATES DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...REACHING FROM WA CASCADES ACROSS WRN NV TO SRN CA BY 00Z AND NRN ROCKIES TO UT/AZ BY 12Z. AT SFC...11Z ANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW OVER ONT/QUE BORDER SWWD ACROSS NWRN OH...WRN KY...SERN AR AND S-CENTRAL TX. BY 00Z...LOW SHOULD MOVE TO NEAR NRN TIP OF NH...WITH FRONT SWWD ACROSS SERN NY...ERN VA...AL AND SRN LA...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY OVER S TX. BY 12Z...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SE TX ACROSS CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TO SC AND ADJOINING ATLC WATERS...WHILE DISSIPATING OVER CENTRAL/S TX. WRN-CONUS COLD FRONT SHOULD STRENGTHEN TODAY OVER ID AND NRN NV...MOVING EWD TO ERN BORDERS OF MT/WY AND CENTRAL CO BY END OF PERIOD. ...NRN ROCKIES... SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION LATE AFTN AND EVENING...OFFERING SPORADIC DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL. DESPITE LACK OF MOISTURE...ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED TSTM WIND EVENT IS APPARENT THAT SVR PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN BOOSTED TO CATEGORICAL THRESHOLDS IN YELLOWSTONE REGION. STG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT/COOLING ALOFT WILL PRECEDE MID-UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...ACTING IN TANDEM WITH LIMITED NEAR-SFC HEATING TO STEEPEN LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IR IMAGERY SHOWS THICK HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE OUTLOOK AREA ATTM...BUT ALSO...RELATIVE SLOT OF CLEARING OVER PORTIONS NRN NV/SRN ID THAT SHOULD WORK NEWD OVER THIS AREA BY AFTN. LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT AND RELATED FORCING...ALONG WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN LOCALIZED UPSLOPE AREAS...SHOULD INITIATE CONVECTION THIS AFTN OVER PORTIONS SERN ID AND WRN MT...WHICH WOULD MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD AMIDST STG DEEP SHEAR. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LACK OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH PRECONVECTIVE SFC DEW POINTS MAINLY IN 30S F AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THANKS TO ANTECEDENT RAIN. TSTMS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT HIGH-BASED...OFFERING BOTH MOMENTUM-TRANSFER POTENTIAL FROM STG FLOW ALOFT AND EVAPORATIVE ACCELERATIONS THROUGH WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER. COLD-POOL GENERATION AND BOWING ARE POSSIBLE IF ACTIVITY CAN AGGREGATE DENSELY. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH NEWD EXTENT AFTER DARK AS FOREGOING BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES MORE STABLE AND ALREADY MEAGER CAPE DIMINISHES. ...CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS... SUSTAINED SFC HEATING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ENCOURAGE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS BY LATE AFTN OVER HIGH PLAINS...SOME OF WHICH MAY FORM IN AND MOVE EWD/NEWD FROM CENTRAL ROCKIES. DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP MLCAPE VERY WEAK -- BELOW 500 J/KG MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL NEAR SVR LEVELS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN FAVORABLE LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER. ...MID-ATLC TO SRN APPALACHIANS REGION... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP INVOF SFC COLD FRONT THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A FEW VERY LOCALIZED/ISOLATED STG GUSTS POSSIBLE. SFC DIABATIC HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE PREFRONTAL AIR MASS...BUT IN PRESENCE OF MEAGER MOISTURE SUCH THAT ONLY NARROW SLIVER OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE IS EXPECTED AT MOST. VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO SHOULD BE WEAK...WITH FLOW VEERING AHEAD OF FRONT AND STRONGEST NRN-STREAM FLOW LAGGING BEHIND. OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL AND MRGL ATTM TO SPECIFY A 5% AREA WITHIN THIS LONG CORRIDOR. ..EDWARDS/ROGERS.. 04/22/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z |