Apr 9, 2013 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Tue Apr 9 07:30:48 UTC 2013
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20130409 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20130409 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 252,329 34,172,524 Charlotte, NC...Nashville, TN...Atlanta, GA...New Orleans, LA...Lexington, KY...
   SPC AC 090728
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0228 AM CDT TUE APR 09 2013
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL OH VALLEY TO THE
   SOUTHEAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD CONSIST OF
   TWO PROMINENT SHORTWAVE IMPULSES BY 12Z/THU. ONE SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY
   NEWD FROM THE MID-MO VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE OTHER
   LOCATED WITHIN THE BASAL PORTION OF THE BROADER TROUGH SHOULD EJECT
   RAPIDLY E/NEWD FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOWARDS THE SRN
   APPALACHIANS THROUGH EARLY FRI. AT THE SURFACE...A CYCLONE WILL
   PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHES FROM
   THE MS VALLEY ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY FRI.
   
   ...OH VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST...
   A SQUALL LINE WILL PROBABLY BE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT AT 12Z/THU.
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT/ASSOCIATED
   QLCS...CONTRIBUTING TO UPPER 50S TO 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS
   MOST OF THE ERN CONUS WARM SECTOR. ALTHOUGH DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE
   LIMITED BY ABUNDANT CLOUD COVERAGE AHEAD OF MORNING
   CONVECTION...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP AS FAR N AS THE CNTRL
   OH VALLEY WITH POTENTIALLY MODERATE BUOYANCY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   DEEP SOUTH. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE
   FRONT...STRENGTHENING OF WIND FIELDS IS EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR
   WITH RAPID APPROACH OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY SHORTWAVE
   IMPULSE. AS SUCH...DIURNAL RE-INTENSIFICATION OF FRONTAL CONVECTION
   APPEARS PROBABLE...WITH SEVERE INTENSITY BEING MAINTAINED INTO THE
   EVENING AND PERHAPS OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD.
   PRIMARY HAZARDS SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS ALONG
   WITH A FEW TORNADOES.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/09/2013
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z