Apr 9, 2013 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook | |||||||||
Updated: Tue Apr 9 07:30:48 UTC 2013 | |||||||||
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic | |||||||||
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Probabilistic Graphic | |||||||||
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Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 090728 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 AM CDT TUE APR 09 2013 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL OH VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD CONSIST OF TWO PROMINENT SHORTWAVE IMPULSES BY 12Z/THU. ONE SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY NEWD FROM THE MID-MO VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE OTHER LOCATED WITHIN THE BASAL PORTION OF THE BROADER TROUGH SHOULD EJECT RAPIDLY E/NEWD FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOWARDS THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH EARLY FRI. AT THE SURFACE...A CYCLONE WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHES FROM THE MS VALLEY ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY FRI. ...OH VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST... A SQUALL LINE WILL PROBABLY BE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT AT 12Z/THU. LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT/ASSOCIATED QLCS...CONTRIBUTING TO UPPER 50S TO 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS MOST OF THE ERN CONUS WARM SECTOR. ALTHOUGH DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE LIMITED BY ABUNDANT CLOUD COVERAGE AHEAD OF MORNING CONVECTION...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP AS FAR N AS THE CNTRL OH VALLEY WITH POTENTIALLY MODERATE BUOYANCY ACROSS PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...STRENGTHENING OF WIND FIELDS IS EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH RAPID APPROACH OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. AS SUCH...DIURNAL RE-INTENSIFICATION OF FRONTAL CONVECTION APPEARS PROBABLE...WITH SEVERE INTENSITY BEING MAINTAINED INTO THE EVENING AND PERHAPS OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD. PRIMARY HAZARDS SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES. ..GRAMS.. 04/09/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z |