Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 080808
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0208 AM CST FRI FEB 08 2013
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TX COAST INTO
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
   
   ...UPPER TX COAST TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
   
   DAY2 SRN ROCKIES SPEED MAX WILL TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE MID MS
   VALLEY BY 11/00Z WITH A BROAD CORRIDOR OF STRONG MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW
   EXPECTED TO EXTEND TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST WHERE H5 FLOW SHOULD BE
   AOA 60KT.  WHILE MORE MEANINGFUL LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING
   SHOULD SPREAD WELL NORTH OF THE REGION IT APPEARS WEAK CONVERGENCE
   ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR TSTM
   INITIATION ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO SERN TX.  SCATTERED
   CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE
   WIND SHIFT BUT MOST SIGNIFICANT TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO
   EVOLVE WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
   SUGGESTS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL ALLOW MID 60S SFC DEW
   POINTS TO ADVANCE INLAND ACROSS SERN TX INTO LA WHERE SBCAPE COULD
   APPROACH 1000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING.  BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
   SIGNIFICANT CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE ALONG/SOUTH
   OF TRAILING BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY AIDED IN PART BY A WEAK EMBEDDED MID
   LEVEL IMPULSE.  GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ANY STORMS THAT
   DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION COULD ORGANIZE AND POSSIBLY ATTAIN
   SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WARM ADVECTION
   PROFILES.  WHILE A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION
   IT/S LIKELY THE MORE COMMON STORM MODE WILL BE MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS
   THAT COULD EVOLVE INTO AN MCS...ESPECIALLY IF A WEAK MID LEVEL
   IMPULSE AIDS ACTIVITY AS IMPLIED BY LATEST GUIDANCE.
   
   ADDITIONALLY...WEAK WARM ADVECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD MAY AID IN THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TX WHERE
   ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE OVERTURNED BY DAYTIME CONVECTION.
   
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS EVEN A
   FEW TORNADOES ARE THE SEVERE THREATS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK
   REGION.
   
   ..DARROW.. 02/08/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z