Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 270824
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0224 AM CST SUN JAN 27 2013
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX NORTHEAST TO IL AND
   EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POTENT HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
   SWEEP EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST AND LOWER MS VALLEY
   FROM TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE A
   FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SWATH OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM CNTRL AND NERN
   TX...NRN LA...ACROSS MUCH OF AR AND SERN MO...AND EAST AND SOUTH
   ACROSS THE MS RIVER FROM IL TO MS. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE
   OVERLY DETAILED REGARDING THE CHARACTER OF THIS EVENT...THE
   SIZE...STRENGTH...AND RAPID EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
   SYSTEM...AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
   EXTENSIVE AND FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
   WINDS ACROSS SOME OR ALL OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS FROM AROUND
   MID-DAY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
   
   ...TX TO IL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
   PREFER THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND NOT SO PHASED DEPICTION OF THE UPPER
   TROUGH AS SHOWN BY LATEST ECMWF AND NAM THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THESE
   SCENARIOS INDICATE A MOIST BUT GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS WILL BE SITUATED FROM TX NEWD ACROSS MO AND INTO IL BY
   TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE
   COMPENSATED FOR BY RELATIVELY RAPID ONSET OF INTENSE ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF MID/UPPER TROUGH AND 100KT MID LEVEL
   SPEED MAX SPREADING OUT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR TO NEAR ARLATEX BY
   AROUND 00Z. DEEP CONVECTION WILL ERUPT ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF
   THE SHARPENING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS
   COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EVER INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR/FLOW.
   EXTENSIVE QLCS APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS
   VALLEY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CELL MOTIONS FORECAST IN EXCESS OF
   50KT LEADING DAMAGING WINDS. LACK OF STRONGER CYCLONIC DEVELOPMENT
   ALONG THE COLD FRONT SUGGESTS LINEAR MODE SHOULD DOMINATE BUT
   SUPERCELLS AND LEWPS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE AND NEAR TRANSIENT FRONTAL
   WAVE STRUCTURES WOULD POSE SOME TORNADO THREAT WITH TIME.
   UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING OVERALL TIMING AND DEGREE OF SURFACE-BASED
   DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDE HIGHER OR SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITIES AT THIS
   FORECAST RANGE. HOWEVER...FUTURE UPGRADE TO MDT RISK SEEMS POSSIBLE
   IF THESE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 01/27/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z