SPC AC 171729
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1229 PM CDT SUN MAR 17 2013
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MS...AL...NWRN
   GA...CNTRL AND ERN KY AND TN...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY 18Z AND WILL RAPIDLY MOVE NEWD
   ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY EVENING. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY JET MAX
   WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...AND WILL
   RESULT IN WIDESPREAD HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE
   SERN STATES.
   
   ...KY/TN/MS/AL/GA/FL PANHANDLE...
   A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM SRN IL/WRN KY NEWD INTO
   INDIANA BETWEEN 12-18Z...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD INTO
   TN...NRN MS AND SRN AR. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY
   THIS LOW AND THE NRN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   THE NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
   THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS NRN MS/AL...TN...AND KY AS A
   RESULT. WITH RELATIVELY STRONG MEAN FLOW...SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
   MAY BE SEVERE WITH MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL. 
   
   AS FORCING LIFTS NEWD...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE TRAILING COLD
   FRONT AND WARM SECTOR ACROSS MS/AL/GA/FL. INDICATIONS ARE THAT LOW
   CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR AND ALLOW FOR HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION TO
   OCCUR...WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME CENTERED OVER MS. MODELS
   OFFER A MENAGERIE OF QPF SOLUTIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT THE
   GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND POSSIBLY AHEAD
   OF THE WEAK FRONT/LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM NRN AL INTO MS AND
   PERHAPS AS FAR SW AS ERN LA. 
   ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE VEERED...LONG HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   ALSO BE PRESENT...AND WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A FEW
   STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT HAIL OVER 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER.
   VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS TORNADO THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL...BUT
   NON-ZERO FOR RIGHTWARD MOVING SUPERCELLS. THE PRESENCE OF
   SUBSTANTIAL LI/S MAY ALSO TEND TO COMPENSATE FOR THE MARGINAL LOW
   LEVEL SHEAR. THE MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL BE
   OVER CNTRL AND SRN AL.
   
   OVERNIGHT...AN UNSTABLE AND RELATIVELY UNCAPPED AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
   ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE. ISOLATED
   SEVERE ACTIVITY MAY THUS PERSIST AS IT TRAVELS SEWD OUT OF AL. A FEW
   SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO EXIST ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE GULF OF
   MEXICO...AND COULD THREATEN PORTIONS OF THE FL COAST LATE.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 03/17/2013
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z