Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 281730
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CST MON JAN 28 2013
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN LA...CNTRL AND ERN
   AR...EXTREME SWRN TN AND NWRN TO WCNTRL MS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN
   PLAINS...LOWER THROUGH MID MS VALLEY INTO WRN PARTS OF THE TN AND OH
   VALLEYS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL ADVANCE
   EWD...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
   LOCATED FROM MN THROUGH CNTRL/ERN TX BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. MID
   LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX LOCATED WITHIN BASE OF THE TROUGH
   SHOULD EJECT FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY
   TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS A CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT NEWD
   THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. A POLAR FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE
   SFC LOW OVER IA SWWD INTO CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY...WITH
   A PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD THROUGH WRN TX. POLAR FRONT
   WILL ADVANCE SEWD DURING THE DAY...WHILE THE PACIFIC FRONT SURGES
   EWD AND MERGES WITH DRYLINE...CONTINUING THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY
   OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
   
   POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TUESDAY WITH
   DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES THE PRIMARY THREATS...ESPECIALLY DURING
   THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN MODERATE RISK AREA. OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
   RESERVOIR OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS FROM CNTRL INTO SRN TX.
   SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ALREADY EXISTS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY AND WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
   INTENSIFYING LLJ. WIDESPREAD MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY
   LAYER WARMING DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...MID 60S DEWPOINTS SHOULD
   ADVECT AS FAR NORTH AS SERN OK INTO CNTRL AR AND NRN MS BENEATH A
   PLUME OF 6.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN AT LEAST
   500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE.
   
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND
   ACROSS CNTRL/ERN OK INTO NCNTRL/NERN TX EARLY TUESDAY AND SHIFT EWD
   AND NEWD DURING THE DAY. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH
   THROUGH ERN TX DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG MERGING PACIFIC FRONT AND
   SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
   MOISTEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO BECOME SFC BASED. STORMS
   WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW WITH A 50+ KT SLY LLJ
   AND MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TO 80 KT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   EVOLVE INTO A PREDOMINANT QLCS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND BOWING
   SEGMENTS POSING A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES. TORNADO
   THREAT MAY INCREASE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN MODERATE RISK AREA
   WHERE LLJ INTENSIFYING TO IN EXCESS OF 70 KT WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH
   NRN EDGE OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS.
   
   ...UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TN VALLEY REGION...
   
   OTHER STORMS WILL EXPAND NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND SWRN
   PARTS OF OH VALLEY WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED...BUT
   SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND WITH PRIMARY MODE BEING
   LINES AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH MESO VORTICES. A FEW EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN SIZE OF HODOGRAPHS AND
   STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR SUGGESTING A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT
   BE RULED OUT.
   
   ..DIAL.. 01/28/2013
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z