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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 240558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN CO INTO WRN NEB AND NWRN KS... ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY OMEGA BLOCKING REGIME WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL U.S. FLANKED BY UPPER LOWS OVER THE ERN AND WRN STATES. GRADUAL DEAMPLIFICATION OF THIS REGIME WILL OCCUR AS SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN WRN U.S. UPPER LOW LIFTS NWD INTO SASKATCHEWAN...AND AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE OH VALLEY EXITS THE ERN U.S. SEABOARD. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND WWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY...BUT WILL DEVELOP NWD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS ALONG A 50 KT SLY LLJ. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WHERE THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES OVERLAP THE WRN EDGE OF THE MOIST AXIS WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE LIKELY FROM NERN CO INTO NWRN KS AND WRN NEB. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INITIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS REGION WILL RESIDE JUST SE OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN U.S. UPPER LOW WITH GENERALLY 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...THROUGH A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE LINES/CLUSTERS BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE EVENING. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MULTICELLS...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. ...SRN THROUGH SERN TX... SWD PROPAGATING MCS MAY STILL BE ONGOING 12Z FRIDAY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A MODEST RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. SOME INTENSIFICATION MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED...BUT RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MLCAPE FROM 2000-3000 J/KG MAY SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WING GUSTS AND HAIL. ..DIAL.. 05/24/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z |