| Categorical Graphic | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|||||||||||||
| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||||||
 |
|||||||||||||
| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||||||
| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||||||
 |
|||||||||||||
| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||||||
| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||||||
 |
|||||||||||||
| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
|||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||
SPC AC 231225 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0725 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHWEST TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF OK/TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES... ...NORTHEAST STATES... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE MS AND OH VALLEYS THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. BROKEN CLOUD COVER WILL SLOW DAYTIME HEATING THIS MORNING...BUT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION SHOULD RESULT FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S COUPLED WITH 20-30 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STRONG STORMS IS EXPECTED FROM EASTERN PA/NY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF MD/VA AND NC. STORMS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. ...TX/OK... A CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL OK. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND SPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH TX. TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS ACTIVITY...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TRANSPORT RICH GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD BENEATH A RATHER STOUT CAPPING INVERSION. BY LATE AFTERNOON...MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE CDS AREA ALONG WITH FULL HEATING ALL DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /OVER 8.0 C/KM/ AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 4000 J/KG. WHILE THE THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS ARE FORECAST TO BE EXCEPTIONAL...THIS REGION WILL BE UNDER A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WITH ONLY SUBTLE FORCING MECHANISMS EXPECTED TO AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTH OF TUS. GIVEN CURRENT MOTION...THIS TROUGH WILL BE OVER WEST TX AROUND 21Z. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION OVER OK AND LIE ACROSS NORTHWEST TX AROUND THE SAME TIME. IF THIS SERIES OF EVENTS CAN COME TOGETHER...THERE APPEARS TO BE A RATHER SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. THIS AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK. LARGE/SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELL STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA...CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE WEAKENING LATE THIS EVENING. ..HART/LEITMAN.. 05/23/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z |