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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 141941 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN TX... SEVERAL MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN APPLIED TO THE 1630Z OUTLOOK...NAMELY TO REMOVE SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND TO MORE ACCURATELY ORIENT THE SEVERE PROBS ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY...GREATEST SEVERE RISK APPEARS TO BE JUST EAST OF THE BIG BEND REGION ALONG THE MEXICAN BORDER WHERE LATE AFTERNOON TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE U.S. BORDER OVER ONTARIO AND FOR THIS REASON...ALONG WITH POOR MOISTURE CONTENT...HAVE OPTED TO LOWER THE SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. FARTHER SW...LATEST VIS IMAGERY DEPICTS A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED/DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER CU FROM ECNTRL CO...NEWD ACROSS NWRN KS INTO CNTRL NEB. OTHER AGITATED MID LEVEL CU EXTENDS ACROSS NWRN IA INTO SCNTRL NEB WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED ABOVE 100F. PW CONTENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH ALONG THIS CORRIDOR BUT ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE EVOLVED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND LOCALLY STRONG DOWNBURSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE PSEUDO-STATIONARY HEAVIER RAIN POCKETS. EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING POTENTIAL SEVERE EVOLUTION ALONG THE U.S./MEXICAN BORDER REMAIN. ..DARROW.. 05/14/2013 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/ ...SRN/WRN TX... AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM NRN CHIHUAHUA TO WEST TX IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN BACKGROUND ASCENT AS INTENSE DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTENING CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY. SHARPENING DRYLINE CIRCULATION...OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WITHIN/BENEATH LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF MID/UPPER JET STREAK WILL PROMOTE WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS FROM BIG BEND AREA ACROSS THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO RANGE OF NRN MEXICO. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP EAST INTO A MORE SUPPORTIVE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH TIME. INITIALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY GROW A BIT UPSCALE AND POSE SOME THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS INTO THE EVENING. WHILE UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH REGARD TO OVERALL STORM COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR IN AREAS WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR CONVECTION...LATEST STORM SCALE WRF-ARW AND HRRR REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER FORECASTS IN DEVELOPING A SMALL MCS THROUGH THE EVENING FROM THE BIG BEND ESEWD ACROSS THE MID/LOWER RIO GRANDE AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE HILL COUNTRY. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...A SMALL SLGT RISK AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR THE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING. ...WRN GREAT LAKES... A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ESEWD ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S./CANADA BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT SOME INCREASE IN DEEP ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN SEWD ACROSS LOWER MI. WHILE SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES IN THIS REGION WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS ROOTED ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...LIMITED MOISTURE LEADING TO STRONG INHIBITION...ALONG WITH ONLY MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT...WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION. ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY HAIL FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ...CNTRL PLAINS... THE COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO A VERY HOT AND DRY AIRMASS FROM NEB ENEWD TO SWRN MN/NRN IA WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS WILL EXCEED 100F. PRONOUNCED EML AND CONTINUED HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION AND A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WELL OVER 10KFT DEEP IN SOME PLACES. LACK OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND ONLY WEAK TO MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANYTHING BUT ISOLATED AND HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN CONSOLIDATE IN THIS REGIME WILL POSE SOME THREAT FOR LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z |