Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 100554
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1154 PM CST SAT FEB 09 2013
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF
   COAST STATES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S. THIS
   PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM WITH RESPECT TO THE CONVECTIVE THREAT
   BEING A LOW/TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  WITH
   TIME...THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT RATHER QUICKLY NEWD...REACHING THE
   UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION LATE.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...AN UPPER LOW WILL ALSO SHIFT NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER
   MS VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.  A
   TRAILING COLD FRONT -- STRETCHING SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS EARLY IN
   THE PERIOD -- WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OH
   VALLEY...WHILE THE SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT CROSSES THE MID AND
   LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
   
   ...THE LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES...
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
   PERIOD NEAR THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.  SHOWERS
   AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO EXPECTED FARTHER
   E/NE WITHIN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA.  DESPITE
   LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ONLY MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY IS FORECAST AS LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK -- PARTIALLY DUE
   TO THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM-ADVECTIVE CONVECTION.
   
   WHILE THIS MODEST INSTABILITY -- AND THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER
   SYSTEM WELL TO THE N OF THIS AREA -- SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
   INTENSITY AND THUS OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...A VERY FAVORABLY SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AS WINDS
   VEER/INCREASE STRONGLY WITH HEIGHT.  THUS...STRONGER/ROTATING
   UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE OF STORMS --
   PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS CONVECTION SHIFTS
   EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
   STATES.
   
   WHILE MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...GREATER SEVERE THREAT WILL
   LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS ISOLATED
   TORNADOES.  AGAIN -- THOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED MITIGATING FACTORS
   ARE A CONCERN...WILL INTRODUCE 10% TORNADO PROBABILITY DUE TO THE
   FAVORABLE SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE
   PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   ..GOSS.. 02/10/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z