Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 241722
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1122 AM CST MON DEC 24 2012
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF LA...CENTRAL/SRN
   MS...AND WRN AL...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX ACROSS THE GULF
   COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS...
   
   ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS DAY OVER
   PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN ENERGETIC FLOW PATTERN IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE
   EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS THE CONUS AS A SERIES OF VIGOROUS UPPER
   TROUGHS PROGRESS EWD.  THE PRIMARY SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TOMORROW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. 
   WITH LATEST UPPER AIR DATA INDICATING THE STRONGEST MID/UPPER LEVEL
   WINDS DIGGING INTO THE SWRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH...MODEL CONSENSUS
   INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL AMPLIFY/DEVELOP INTO A PROGRESSIVE CLOSED
   LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY REACHING THE MIDDLE
   MS VALLEY BY 26/12Z.  AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE REGION
   OVER CENTRAL/ERN TX EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE
   INTO A DEEPENING LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN LA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
   CONTINUING INTO MIDDLE TN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AN EAST-WEST
   ORIENTED WARM FRONT FROM SERN TX ACROSS THE SRN PARTS OF MS/AL AND
   GA WILL SLOWLY LIFT NWD AS THE LOW MOVES NEWD...WHILE A COLD FRONT
   EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE EWD
   /ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT/ ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REACHING AL
   BY 26/12Z.
   
   ...GULF COAST REGION/LOWER MS VALLEY...
   AREAS OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING FROM
   ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS
   INTENSE LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER
   LEVEL JET COINCIDES WITH FOCUSED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM
   ADVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. SOUTH OF THE WARM
   FRONT...SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 60S F WILL BE RETURNING
   NWD ACROSS A BROAD WARM SECTOR EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
   COAST REGION.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
   MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1000-1250 J/KG NEAR THE COAST TO AOB 500 J/KG
   NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
   
   STRONG WINDS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS /70-90 KT AT 500 MB AND
   110+ KT AT 250 MB/ WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
   ROTATING UPDRAFTS...INCLUDING ELEVATED SUPERCELLS NORTH OF THE WARM
   FRONT. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...FORCED ASCENT ALONG THE ADVANCING
   COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN QLCS DEVELOPMENT CONTAINING
   EMBEDDED FAST-MOVING BOW ECHOES AND POSSIBLE
   SUPERCELLS/MESO-VORTICES AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS LA AND THE SRN HALF
   OF SRN MS.  THERE WILL ALSO BE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
   DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN THE WARM SECTOR AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT
   AHEAD OF THE QLCS.  LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND CLOCKWISE TURNING LOW LEVEL
   HODOGRAPHS /SRH VALUES OF 200-400 M2 PER S2/ INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
   TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.  THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR SEVERAL LONG-TRACK
   STRONG TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH ANY LONG-LIVED FAST-MOVING
   SUPERCELLS...ALONG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE
   MOST INTENSE PARTS OF THE BOWING QLCS.  DESPITE GRADUALLY DECREASING
   INSTABILITY AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING OCCURS AFTER DARK...A SEVERE
   THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD/NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF AL...SRN TN
   AND WRN GA DURING THE NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.
   
   ..WEISS.. 12/24/2012
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z