Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 211730
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2012
   
   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/LOWER AND
   MIDDLE MS VALLEY TO OH/TN VALLEYS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY OVER
   THE CONUS. AN UPPER TROUGH /AND ASSOCIATED STRONG MID-UPPER JET/ NOW
   OVER THE CONUS WEST COAST WILL REACH THE PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY...AND
   EVENTUALLY TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT TOWARD THE MIDDLE/UPPER
   MS RIVER VALLEY AND MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
   CONSIDERABLE FACTOR IN TERMS OF SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
   ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. FARTHER WEST...A SECONDARY
   UPPER TROUGH/STRONG JET ALOFT WILL REACH THE WEST COAST BY EARLY
   MONDAY.
   
   ...ARKLATEX/OZARKS AND MID-SOUTH TO MS/TN RIVER VALLEYS...
   AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE EVENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
   NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND
   DAMAGING WINDS. AN UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK MAY BE
   WARRANTED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
   
   GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...AND THAT A
   RELATIVELY MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS WILL ONLY BE SUPPRESSED TO THE GULF
   COAST REGION WITH THE DAY-1 FRONTAL PASSAGE...A RELATIVELY
   QUICK/QUALITY RETURN OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED
   ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PLAINS UPPER
   TROUGH. THIS RELATIVELY MOIST/BROAD WARM SECTOR WILL BE TO THE
   EAST-SOUTHWARD OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE
   SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE LAKE
   MI VICINITY BY EARLY MONDAY. NEAR AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING DRY LINE AND
   /MORE SO/ PACIFIC FRONT...INITIAL DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY
   OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH AS EARLY AS LATE
   AFTERNOON /OR MORE LIKELY/ SUNDAY EVENING. MORE DISCRETE/POTENTIALLY
   SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT COULD ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
   ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUALLY
   MOISTENS/CAPPING ALOFT ABATES.
   
   GIVEN MORE THAN ADEQUATE MOISTURE/DESTABILIZATION...A ROBUST WIND
   FIELD /HIGHLIGHTED BY 90-100 KT AROUND 500 MB AND 55-65 KT WITHIN
   THE LOWEST 1-2 KM/ WILL FAVOR HIGHLY ORGANIZED STORM MODES WITH
   ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY EVENING...WITH AN
   ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE EPISODE PLAUSIBLE. CURRENT
   THINKING IS THAT A MULTI-FACETED STORM MODE SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH
   SUNDAY EARLY/MID-EVENING...INCLUDING INITIAL SEMI-DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF WHAT WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR
   QUICK-CLUSTERING/LINEAR EVOLUTION IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
   ADVANCING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. A PREVALENT QUASI-LINEAR MODE/FAST
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOVING SQUALL LINE IS LIKELY BY LATE SUNDAY
   NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM MS/AL INTO PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY/LOWER
   OH VALLEY. AS SUCH...THE SEVERE THREAT /IN AN ISOLATED SENSE AT THE
   VERY LEAST/ WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
   HOURS OF MONDAY.
   
   ...OH VALLEY...
   FARTHER NORTH...THE EXACT DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND
   DESTABILIZATION IS INHERENTLY MORE QUESTIONABLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
   RECENT WINTER-TYPE PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST
   WHICH PARTIALLY COINCIDES WITH THE EXPECTED SURFACE LOW TRACK/BRUNT
   OF DPVA AS THE UPPER SYSTEM EVENTUALLY TAKES ON A MORE NEGATIVE
   TILT. THAT SAID...A ROBUST WIND FIELD/LATE NIGHT DEEPENING PHASE OF
   THE CYCLONE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A RESPECTABLE THREAT FOR WIND
   DAMAGE/PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES EVEN WHERE NEAR-SURFACE INSTABILITY
   IS SCANT ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
   
   ..GUYER.. 01/21/2012
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z