Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 121630
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012
   
   VALID 121630Z - 131200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
   THE FOUR CORNERS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS...
   
   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...
   THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WILL EVOLVE INTO MORE
   OF AN OPEN WAVE AND PROGRESS ENEWD TO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS EVENING
   AND ERN CO/NM BY SATURDAY MORNING.  A SURFACE FRONT IS NOW STALLING
   ACROSS NE NM...THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...AND NW OK.  THE EJECTING
   MIDLEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING CO/NM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CYCLOGENESIS IN
   THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...THOUGH RAINFALL REINFORCING THE
   FRONT ACROSS NM/TX/OK WILL LIMIT EROSION OF THE COOL/STABLE AIR AND
   NWD PROGRESS OF THE SURFACE FRONT.  S OF THE FRONT...RICH BOUNDARY
   LAYER MOISTURE IS PRESENT /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S/...AND
   REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG WITH
   AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S NEAR THE FRONT.  
   
   OTHER THAN THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE FRONT...THE PRIMARY
   UNCERTAINTY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT CONCERNS THE IMPACTS OF
   ONGOING CONVECTION.  RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE
   OUTFLOW WILL INHIBIT DAYTIME HEATING NEAR THE FRONT...WITH THE
   POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL AREA OF E CENTRAL NM.  THUS...THE MOST
   PROBABLE SCENARIO WILL BE FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER
   THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE ERN NM/TX BORDER...POSSIBLY AS FAR S
   AS SE NM/W CENTRAL TX.  STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER SWLY FLOW AND
   MAINTENANCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL RESULT IN HODOGRAPHS
   FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.  POTENTIALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE
   MOIST ENVIRONMENT...IN COMBINATION WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
   40-50 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 250 M2/S2...WILL SUPPORT THE RISK
   FOR A FEW TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. 
   
   ...FOUR CORNERS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...
   AN EMBEDDED SPEED MAX IS ROTATING NEWD OVER AZ THIS MORNING...WITH
   THE DOWNSTREAM ZONE OF ASCENT EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD OVER THE FOUR
   CORNERS THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.  SOME SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD
   BREAKS...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S AT A RELATIVELY HIGH
   ELEVATION...WILL SUPPORT SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG.  VERTICAL
   SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...WHERE COOL
   MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
   
   ...KS/NE/MO/IA AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...
   THE RESIDUAL COOL/STABLE AIR MASS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE TODAY GIVEN
   WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE S IN TX/OK. 
   THOUGH THE COOL AIR SHOULD RETREAT SOME OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
   HIGH PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS...THE SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS APPEAR A
   LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN WARMING/MOISTENING THE LOW LEVELS. 
   THUS...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT IS IN QUESTION...WITH
   LARGELY SUB-SEVERE/ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED.
   
   ..THOMPSON/GARNER.. 10/12/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z