Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 120535
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1235 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS WRN KS TO SRN HIGH
   PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN IN MID-UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO DEAMPLIFY
   SOMEWHAT DURING PERIOD...OVER WRN CONUS.  THIS WILL OCCUR AS
   WELL-DEFINED CYCLONE -- NOW LOCATED OVER SRN CA -- MOVES ENEWD FROM
   SERN SIERRA REGION.  THOUGH THIS CYCLONE IS FCST TO FILL
   GRADUALLY...IT WILL MAINTAIN HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH
   POSITIVE TILT AS IT EJECTS FROM ITS MOST EQUATORWARD POSITION...AND
   REJOINS PREVAILING WLYS ALOFT.  PRIMARY 500-MB VORTICITY LOBE SHOULD
   MOVE NEWD ACROSS UT DURING MIDDLE OF PERIOD...EXTENDING FROM WRN NEB
   TO S-CENTRAL CO AND WRN NM BY 13/12Z.
   
   AT SFC...COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM SERN ONT SWWD ACROSS NRN/WRN
   IL AND S-CENTRAL KS TO NRN PORTIONS TX PANHANDLE.  WRN PORTION OF
   THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS PANHANDLE AND NERN NM EARLY IN
   PERIOD...THEN RETURN NWD AS WARM FRONT OVER NRN OK...OK/NRN TX
   PANHANDLES AND SERN CO.  HOWEVER...PRECEDING/MORNING CONVECTION MAY
   EFFECTIVELY SHUNT FRONT SWD SOMEWHAT OVER OK...TX PANHANDLE AND NERN
   NM...DELAYING ITS NWD MOVEMENT THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS.  DRYLINE
   SHOULD SET UP OVER ERN NM DURING MID-LATE AFTERNOON...AND DEVELOP
   NWD ACROSS SERN CO/SWRN KS AREA OVERNIGHT AS MORNING CONVECTIVE AIR
   MASS DISSIPATES AND FRONT PROCEEDS NWD OVER WRN/SRN/CENTRAL KS.
   
   ...WRN KS TO SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP DIURNALLY ACROSS PORTIONS ERN NM ALONG AND
   E OF DRYLINE AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.  REGIONAL TSTM INITIATION MAY
   COMMENCE AS EARLY AS 18Z-20Z TIME FRAME GIVEN FCST OF RELATIVELY
   WEAK MLCINH...AND TIME SERIES OF FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING REMOVAL
   OF CINH FOR SFC TEMPS MID-70S F IN SOME AREAS AWAY FROM MOUNTAINS. 
   COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE PRESENCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL
   CLOUDS...BASED ON CURRENT/UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS AND PROGS OF
   HIGH RH ALOFT.  THIS FACTOR ALSO MAY DELAY OR GRADATE TSTM
   INITIATION PROCESSES...DEPENDING ON MESOSCALE CHARACTER OF CLOUD
   COVER.
   
   BY LATE AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD BE
   INCREASING ACROSS TX/NM BORDER REGION.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
   STRENGTHENING DEEP SHEAR ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE WILL SUPPORT MORE
   ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL..INCLUDING RISK OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR SVR CLUSTERED OR
   BOWING STORM MODES.  FOR THOSE CELLS THAT STILL ARE RELATIVELY
   DISCRETE DURING 00Z-03Z TIME FRAME...TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE.
   THIS WOULD BE DURING TEMPORAL OVERLAP OF TWO PROCESSES...
   1. STRENGTHENING LLJ THAT FAVORABLY ENLARGES LOW-LEVEL
   HODOGRAPH...BOOSTING EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES PAST 200 J/KG...AND
   2. PRECONVECTIVE/EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS S OF WARM FRONT AND E OF
   DRYLINE REMAINING SFC-BASED...EVEN WITH VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF
   EARLY-STAGE DIABATIC COOLING.
   
   UPSCALE GROWTH OF NNE-SSW ALIGNED CONVECTIVE BAND SHOULD OCCUR
   DURING EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS -- 03Z-09Z TIME FRAME -- WITH
   CONVECTION SHIFTING EWD AND PERHAPS GROWING NEWD INTO ENLARGING KS
   WARM SECTOR.  SPORADIC LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE MAIN
   CONCERNS AFTER ABOUT 06Z...WITH SVR THREAT DIMINISHING TOWARD
   NOCTURNAL INSTABILITY MIN NEAR END OF PERIOD.
   
   ...S-CENTRAL ROCKIES...
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SVR LIMITS MAY EXTEND NWWD
   FROM MAIN SVR RISK AREA ACROSS MOUNTAINS AND ADJOINING BASINS OF NRN
   NM AND SRN CO.  MOISTURE/BUOYANCY WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY MORE LIMITED
   IN THIS REGION THAN FARTHER E.  HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER
   ASCENT/SHEAR WITH TIME WILL SUPPORT MRGL/CONDITIONAL SVR THREAT
   PRIMARILY WITH MID-LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THIS REGION.
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS N OF I-70 TO PORTIONS SRN MN/IA...
   LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT REGIME WILL SPREAD
   NEWD RAPIDLY ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MID MO VALLEY REGION
   OVERNIGHT...SUPPORTING LIKEWISE SHIFT IN ELEVATED THETAE LAYER
   SUPPORTING MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG.  FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR MAGNITUDES IN 35-45 KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE...SUPPORTING A FEW
   SPORADICALLY WELL-ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH HAIL NEAR SVR LEVELS.
   
   ..EDWARDS/DEAN.. 10/12/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z