Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 291937
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0237 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012
   
   VALID 292000Z - 301200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E CNTRL IND EWD ACROSS
   OH...WV...AND SWRN PA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM IA SEWD TO THE DELMARVA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND...
   
   ...UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK FOR PORTIONS OF IND...OH...WV AND SW
   PA...
   
   ...INDIANA SEWD TO THE DELMARVA...
   AN MCS CONTINUES TO GROW UPSCALE ACROSS INDIANA...WHERE WINDS WERE
   RECENTLY MEASURED AT 91 MPH. AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN
   PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...ALL THE WAY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
   ALTHOUGH MEAN WINDS ALOFT ARE ON THE MARGINS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
   EVENTS...LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP WITH PEAK HEATING BEING
   ACHIEVED. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORWARD PROPAGATE EWD AND
   SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING...AND GIVEN LACK OF APPRECIABLE CIN
   FORECAST THIS EVENING...THE SYSTEM MAY CONTINUE TO THE COAST. THE
   GREATEST THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL BE FROM IND TO WV.
   
   FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1306.
   
   ...SD/NEB/IA...
   REMOVED SLIGHT RISK FROM ERN SD AS OUTFLOW HAS STABILIZED A LARGE
   PORTION OF THE AREA. ISOLATED SEVERE MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT BUT WARM
   ADVECTION WILL BE MITIGATED BY CAPPING. TO THE SE...AN MCV CONTINUES
   EWD ACROSS CNTRL IA...WITH STRONG INSTABILITY TO THE E. A
   REGENERATION OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THIS MCV WITH WIND AND
   HAIL POSSIBLE.
   
   ELSEWHERE...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 06/29/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012/
   
   ...NRN PLNS/MID MO VLY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...
   STILL A FAIR DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOR THIS
   AFTN/TONIGHT.  AN ONGOING CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS HAS EVOLVED OVER
   NRN IL LATE THIS MORNING IN A REGION OF MODEST LLVL WARM ADVECTION. 
   LATEST SSEO GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THIS CLUSTER...DEVELOPING ROBUST
   STORMS THROUGH THE CAPE AXIS AND INTO THE CNTRL APLCNS LATER THIS
   EVENING.  12Z NAM IS NOT AS STRONG AND SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WILL
   FESTER FOR SVRL HRS OVER THE MIDWEST.  
   
   AIR MASS ALONG/S OF A E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY JUST N OF THE OH RVR IS
   MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE OWING TO MID 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS
   BENEATH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 9 DEG C PER KM.  AS THE BOUNDARY
   MOVES SLOWLY NWD EARLY THIS AFTN...IT APPEARS THAT THE SSEO SCENARIO
   FITS BEST WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ESE ALONG N EDGE OF THE
   MLCAPE AXIS /4000-6000 J PER KG/.  ONCE A SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL CAN
   BECOME ESTABLISHED...DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG WITH VERY
   LARGE HAIL.  HIGHEST SVR POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO BE FROM NRN IL/IND
   ESE INTO PARTS OF THE MID-OH VLY.  ESE EXTENT OF THE SVR THREAT
   SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS W OF THE APLCN MOUNTAINS BY LATE TONIGHT.
   
   
   FARTHER TO THE NW...ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE
   IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER MCV OVER THE MID-MO VLY AND A SYNOPTIC
   SCALE SYSTEM OVER ERN SD. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM FROM THESE FEATURES IS
   COMPARATIVELY MORE STABLE THAT AREAS FARTHER E.  HOWEVER...DMGG
   WIND/HAIL THREATS ARE NON-ZERO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA.  
   
   
   ...NRN NEW ENGLAND...
   HAVE UPGRADED PORTIONS OF NRN NEW ENGLAND TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS
   AFTN AND EVE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   MIGRATING ACROSS ERN ONT AND SWRN QUEBEC.  AS THE BASE OF THIS
   FEATURE GRAZES NRN NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT SCTD TSTMS TO DEVELOP...BOTH
   ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A RETREATING WRMFNT. STRAIGHT LINE
   HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
   DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS. 
   ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z