Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 121258
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0758 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012
   
   VALID 121300Z - 131200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE WRN GULF CST AND SRN
   PLNS NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL HI PLNS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   CONTINUED EWD MOTION OF UPR GRT LKS TROUGH INTO QUE WILL LEAVE
   LARGELY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS AS FLAT RIDGE PERSISTS
   OVER THE SRN PLNS/WRN GULF OF MEXICO.  TWO BANDS OF ENHANCED FLOW IN
   THE ZONAL CURRENT SHOULD REMAIN MORE OR LESS STNRY THROUGH THE
   PERIOD...A NRN ONE EXTENDING FROM ID/WY INTO NEB/IA...AND A SRN
   BRANCH EXTENDING FROM NM INTO THE SRN PLNS/SRN OZARKS.
   
   AT LWR LVLS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GRT LKS TROUGH WILL
   MOVE E ACROSS THE UPR OH VLY/APPALACHIANS THIS AFTN/EVE...WHILE ITS
   WRN EXTENSION BECOMES QSTNRY/DIFFUSE OVER THE LWR MS VLY/SRN PLNS
   AND LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE HIGH PLNS.  NUMEROUS STRONG TO
   SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD NOT ONLY ALONG/NEAR QSTNRY FRONT
   OVER THE SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY...BUT ALSO ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER THE
   SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLNS.
   
   ...SE TX/SRN LA TODAY...
   OVERNIGHT ARKLATEX MCS HAS LEFT AN ELONGATED /W-E/ COLD POOL OVER
   CNTRL LA THAT MAY SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT
   THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY AS MODEST WSW LOW LVL FLOW AND DEEP EML
   PERSIST TO ITS SOUTH.  THIS SETUP COULD YIELD ADDITIONAL PERIODIC
   EPISODES OF ENHANCED FORWARD PROPAGATION/BOWING...WITH AN ATTENDANT
   RISK FOR SVR WIND VIA HIGH PW/WATER LOADING.
   
   ...SRN PLNS/SRN HIGH PLNS THIS AFTN THROUGH TNGT...
   WIDELY SCTD TSTMS NOW OVER W TX/ERN NM ARE ELEVATED ATOP SHALLOW
   POST-FRONTAL COOL DOME.  THEY MAY PERSIST FOR AWHILE THIS
   MORNING...AND MAY POSE A LOW RISK FOR SVR WIND/HAIL.
   
   MEANWHILE...LOW LVL MOISTURE /MID 50S-MID 60S/ WILL CONTINUE TO
   SPREAD WNW INTO THE SRN HIGH PLNS TODAY AS STALLING FRONT LOSES
   DEFINITION AND LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS E OF THE RCKYS.
   COUPLED WITH SFC HEATING...MOISTURE INFLOW SHOULD YIELD VERY STRONG
   INSTABILITY...WITH SBCAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 2000 J/KG IN ERN NM TO
   NEAR 4000 J/KG IN NW TX.
   
   DEEP/STRONG EML LIKELY WILL DELAY STORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTN WHEN
   COMBINATION OF STRONG HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW BREACH THE CAP. 
   25-30 KT WNWLY 500 MB FLOW ATOP ESELY LOW LVL FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE
   AMPLE /30-40 KT/ WNWLY DEEP SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.  THESE STORMS WILL
   BE CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DMGG WIND.  THE
   THREAT FOR TORNADOES MAY INCREASE BY EARLY EVE AS TEMP-DEWPOINT
   SPREADS AND LCLS DECREASE.
   
   THE STORMS LIKELY WILL MERGE INTO A LARGE CLUSTER TOWARD DARK AS THE
   STORMS MOVE/DEVELOP INTO INCREASINGLY MOIST SELY NEAR-SFC FLOW...SLY
   LLJ NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENS...AND SRN BRANCH JET PERSISTS ALOFT. 
   THIS SYSTEM MAY EVOLVE INTO A LARGER SCALE WIND-PRODUCING
   EVENT/POSSIBLE DERECHO.  IF SUCH A SYSTEM DEVELOPS...IT SHOULD MOVE
   SE ALONG THE MOISTURE AXIS THROUGH LATE TNGT.  PARTS OF WRN AND
   CNTRL TX MAY REQUITE UPGRADE TO MDT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
   
   ...CNTRL HI PLNS...
   A SEPARATE AREA OF ENHANCED SVR THREAT MAY EVOLVE OVER FAR ERN WY
   AND WRN PORTIONS OF NEB/SD...WHERE UPLIFT WILL BE ENHANCED BY A
   DISTURBANCE IN NRN STREAM JET.  WHILE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED
   RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER S...IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDELY
   SCTD TSTMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ WITH A RISK FOR SVR HAIL/WIND. 
   THESE MAY EVOLVE INTO A SMALL E OR SE-MOVING CLUSTER TNGT.
   
   ...UPR OH/TN VLYS AND WRN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTN...
   ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...MODERATE INSTABILITY /1000-1500
   J PER KG MLCAPE/ WILL DEVELOP IN A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR WHERE
   STRONGER HEATING WILL OCCUR IN PRESENCE OF 20-30 KT WLY DEEP SHEAR. 
   ISOLD STRONG TO SVR MULTICELLS COULD YIELD LOCALLY SVR HAIL/WIND.
   
   ...SERN STATES THIS AFTN...
   SCTD MAINLY DIURNAL TSTMS EXPECTED WHERE POCKETS OF HEATING OCCUR
   AHEAD OF STALLING COLD FRONT AND ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
   FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS.  ISOLD STRONGER STORMS MAY YIELD BRIEF/
   LOCALLY DMGG WIND.
   
   ..CORFIDI/LEITMAN.. 06/12/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z