Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 300553
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1253 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
   
   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL OK/N TX
   AND A SMALL PORTION OF SRN KS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF WRN NEB
   SWD INTO N TX/SWRN MO/WRN AR...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD/WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE ERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO BECOME
   REINFORCED ON ITS WRN FRINGE AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING MOVES OUT OF
   THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
   
   AT THE SURFACE...DEPARTING T.D. BERYL IS PROGGED TO BE SHIFTING OFF
   THE SERN U.S. COAST EARLY...LEAVING A WEAK WIND SHIFT/CONVERGENCE
   AXIS IN ITS WAKE -- EXTENDING WWD ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION. 
   MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN INVOF NWRN TX DURING
   THE DAY...WITH A COMBINATION FRONT/OUTFLOW EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE
   OK VICINITY AND A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD.  THESE TWO BOUNDARIES IN
   THE OK/TX VICINITY AND THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION
   SHOULD SERVE AS THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE FOCI THIS PERIOD.
   
   ...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS REGION...
   ANOTHER DAY OF SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
   ACROSS THE OK/TX VICINITY...WITH SOME THREAT EXTENDING NWWD INTO THE
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.  ACROSS THE SRN
   PLAINS...HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF
   OVERNIGHT CONVECTION -- AND AN ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH
   SHOULD BE RETREATING NWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY/SRN OK DURING
   THE DAY.  BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THIS BOUNDARY -- EXPECTED TO
   RESIDE ACROSS CENTRAL OR NRN OK...AND A DRYLINE MIXING EWD ACROSS
   THE TX PANHANDLE/NWRN TX TOWARD WRN OK...WILL LIKELY FOCUS UPDRAFT
   INITIATION -- AIDED BY THE A SUBTLE FEATURE ALOFT WHICH SHOULD BE
   SHIFTING INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
   
   WITH VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEING CONTINUALLY SUPPLIED BY
   WLY FLOW ALOFT -- SPREADING ATOP A MOIST/HEATING BOUNDARY
   LAYER...STRONG DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR...WITH AFTERNOON CAPE
   VALUES OVER WRN OK AND VICINITY FORECAST TO EXCEED 4000 J/KG
   MIXED-LAYER CAPE.  THIS THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW
   EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE GROWTH ONCE STORMS INITIATE...FURTHER AIDED BY
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION.  ISOLATED STORMS
   DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN OK AND VICINITY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY
   LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL...AND WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
   WINDS.  WHILE SOMEWHAT WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY LIMIT TORNADO
   POTENTIAL IN MOST AREAS...ENHANCED SHEAR NEAR/N OF THE SURFACE
   FRONT/REMNANT OUTFLOW MAY SUPPORT A ZONE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER TORNADO
   PROBABILITY.
   
   MORE ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP NWWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS REGION...WHERE LESSER -- BUT SUFFICIENT -- INSTABILITY WILL
   SUPPORT SOME HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL.
   
   AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS OK AND VICINITY...COLLIDING
   STORM OUTFLOWS COMBINED WITH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT
   STORM CLUSTERING/UPSCALE GROWTH IS LIKELY INTO THE EVENING.  ALONG
   WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH ROTATING
   CELLS...WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE -- WITH STORMS EVENTUALLY
   FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS OK/N TX LIKELY IN THE FORM OF ONE OR
   MORE MCS/S.  
   
   ...THE GULF COAST REGION FROM LA EWD TO SRN GA/FL...
   AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION INVOF THE WEAK W-E SURFACE BOUNDARY/WIND
   SHIFT IN THE WAKE OF BERYL SHOULD FOCUS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
   AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR SUGGESTS
   DISORGANIZED/PULSE STORMS...BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IN SOME AREAS
   COULD SUPPORT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL.
   
   ..GOSS/MOSIER.. 05/30/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z