Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 281630
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
   
   VALID 281630Z - 291200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
   TO MI/IND...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NORTHEAST...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
   PLAINS...
   
   ...WI/ERN IA ACROSS IL TO MI...
   A BAND OF WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO IL LATE
   THIS MORNING WHILE PRIMARY COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW REMAIN TO THE
   WEST...ACROSS WI/IA. WHILE ONGOING CONVECTION MAY TEND TO INCREASE
   IN INTENSITY AS GREATER WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY IS
   REALIZED...GREATER SHEAR AND FORCING WILL LIKELY EVOLVE ALONG OR
   IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
   ANTICIPATED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND NEAR SURFACE LOW...FROM WI TO
   ERN IA...THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHERE MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1800
   J/KG WILL BE REACHED AMIDST RELATIVELY WEAK INHIBITION. LIFT ALONG
   THE FRONT WILL BE AIDED BY STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION AND
   THESE FACTORS SHOULD SUSTAIN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SPREADING
   EAST/SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY.
   
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM
   MODES...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY
   DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. GIVEN LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE
   ADVANCING FRONT...STORMS MAY MERGE INTO A RELATIVELY EXTENSIVE
   SQUALL LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BOWING LINE
   SEGMENTS WILL BE QUITE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS FROM ERN
   WI AND NRN IL ACROSS LAKE MI AND INTO MI THROUGH THE EVENING.
   
   ...MN TO NRN WI...
   A SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER STRONG VORT LOBE
   ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW OVER ND WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS
   NRN/CNTRL MN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE HAVING ALREADY
   EXPERIENCED SOME CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING FRONT ACROSS SRN/CNTRL MN LAST
   NIGHT...AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS SECOND FRONT SHOULD DESTABILIZE
   SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT STRONGER STORM UPDRAFTS WITH HAIL AND HIGH
   WIND POTENTIAL. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FAR
   ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE STORM/SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT FARTHER EAST
   AND WILL TRACK TOWARD THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...AND PERHAPS INTO PARTS
   OF NRN WI THROUGH LATE TODAY.
   
   ...NORTHEAST...
   A WEAK UPPER WAVE OBSERVED ON WV IMAGERY OVER W CNTRL NY APPEARS TO
   HAVE EMANATED FROM ACROSS MN 24 HRS AGO. THE SUBTLE WAVE HAS
   PROVIDED SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR ASCENT TO MAINTAIN A LOOSELY
   ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS...NOW WEAKENING WHILE MOVING SEWD ACROSS
   CNTRL NY. DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION AND LESSENING INHIBITION ALONG
   A DIFFUSE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM NERN PA TO SRN NEW ENGLAND
   MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN TSTMS IN THESE AREAS LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON. THIS REGION LIES WITHIN BROAD RIDGE AXIS WITH ABOUT
   15-20KT OF MID FLOW...SOUTH OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS PARTS
   OF NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. WITH HIGH TEMPS FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S
   TO LOWER 90S F AND DEWPOINT TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S F...MODERATE
   SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. SOME MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST
   AN INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION IN THE 17-18Z PERIOD BUT
   OTHER SCENARIOS DEPICT LESS DEVELOPMENT. ANY STORMS THAT CAN
   INITIATE WILL POSE SOME THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL GIVEN
   MAGNITUDE OF ANTICIPATED DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR BUT
   OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION MAY REMAIN LIMITED BY LACK OF STRONGER
   FLOW/SHEAR.
   
   FARTHER NORTHEAST...A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT HAS SPREAD SWD ACROSS NRN
   NEW ENGLAND. DRIER AIR AND CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY INHIBIT
   SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...THE 
   FRONT WILL ACT TO REINFORCE THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE VERY WARM AND
   UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS NY AND POINTS SOUTH...AND MAY
   ALSO AID DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY INTO
   TONIGHT. FORCING FOR LIFT ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY IS UNCERTAIN.
   HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED
   IMPULSES...ORIGINATING IN DEEP CONVECTION UPSTREAM...MAY ENHANCE
   LIFT ALONG THIS NW-SE ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE 
   IN NOCTURNAL STORMS WITH HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
   
   ...SRN PLAINS...
   A LARGE WARM SECTOR IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS WRN/CNTRL TX WHERE
   SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED
   FROM WRN OK EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS WEST TX. ALONG AND TO THE
   SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ALREADY PRESENT. AS
   SFC TEMPS WARM INTO EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON...MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD
   PEAK IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE FROM JUST EAST OF THE MIDLAND
   AREA NEWD TO AROUND WICHITA FALLS. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN FAIRLY
   GOOD AGREEMENT...DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WRN EDGE OF
   INSTABILITY ON THE CAP ROCK NEAR LUBBOCK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
   CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD NEWD ACROSS NW TX INTO SW OK BY EARLY TO
   MID EVENING.
   
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT
   WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AT 8.0 TO 8.5 C/KM. THIS SHOULD
   BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND THE MORE DOMINANT
   SUPERCELLS MAY HAVE HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER.
   THUS....A 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF HAIL...SOME SIGNIFICANT IN
   EXCESS OF 2 INCHES....WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THIS OTLK ACROSS NW TX.
   ALTHOUGH A TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES
   ACROSS NW TX EARLY THIS EVENING...THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS
   CONDITIONAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT WICHITA FALLS AT 02Z SHOW 15 TO
   20 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR AND DROP LCL HEIGHTS TO AROUND 1100 METERS
   SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO THREAT WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. AT THIS POINT...WILL
   NOT ADD A 5 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY DUE TO THE CONDITIONAL
   NATURE OF THE THREAT. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY
   SUPERCELLS WITH THE SEVERE THREAT DEVELOPING NEWD INTO SW OK THIS
   EVENING. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
   CNTRL AND NERN OK INTO SW MO BUT WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WARM
   AIR ALOFT WITH NEWD EXTENT SHOULD LIMIT A MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL/WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ...SRN GA/NERN FL...
   WILL INCLUDE A VERY LOW TORNADO PROBABILITY WITH THIS OTLK ACROSS
   NRN/NERN QUADRANT OF TD BERYL. VERY MOIST/SATURATED TROPICAL 
   AIRMASS EXISTS WITHIN THE WEAKENING CIRCULATION ACROSS NRN FL AND
   SRN GA. WHILE LATEST INDICATIONS ALSO SUGGEST WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
   AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...WIND FIELDS
   AROUND THE CYCLONE REMAIN STRONG AND 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE
   ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 20 TO 30 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT
   LOW-TOPPED ROTATING STORMS IF GREATER DESTABILIZATION CAN BE
   REALIZED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE
   NERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION COULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF
   INSTABILITY AND ALLOW FOR A FEW DISCRETE UPDRAFTS TO PERSIST THIS
   AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS EXHIBITING PERSISTENT ROTATION IN THE PRESENCE
   OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WOULD POSE SOME THREAT OF A WEAK/BRIEF
   TORNADO. HOWEVER...THIS REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY EVENT.
   
   ..CARBIN/HURLBUT/BROYLES.. 05/28/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z