Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 250559
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS
   AND MID-MO VALLEY THROUGH EARLY SAT...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR NRN/WRN NY INTO NRN PA THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL RAPIDLY
   PROGRESS EWD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC...WHILE AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE
   TROUGH PERSISTS IN THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN RISING MID-LEVEL
   HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...COLD
   FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH TRAILING
   PORTION BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE MIDWEST AND ADVANCING NWD
   AS A WARM FRONT IN THE CNTRL PLAINS/MID-MO VALLEY. DRYLINE SHOULD
   MIX INTO SWRN KS S/SWWD TOWARDS THE PECOS VALLEY OF WRN TX.
   
   ...CNTRL CONUS...
   COMPLEX FORECAST TODAY WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OCCURRING THROUGH
   MOST OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING OF AN EML ATOP A
   STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM/MOIST SECTOR. THE LACK OF APPARENT UPSTREAM
   UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES SUGGEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LARGELY
   DRIVEN BY LOW-LEVEL WARM THETA-E ADVECTION N OF A GRADUALLY
   ADVANCING WARM FRONT IN THE CNTRL PLAINS/MID-MO VALLEY...AND ALONG
   THE DRYLINE AND UPSLOPE NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN. 
   
   AREAS OF ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY THIS MORNING IN THE
   CNTRL PLAINS TO WRN MO...REDEVELOPING/EXPANDING IN COVERAGE THIS
   EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT AS A S/SWLY LLJ NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENS IN
   THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. PRESENCE OF 65-70 F SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
   WARM/MOIST SECTOR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN
   ROBUST ELEVATED INSTABILITY...N OF THE EXPANDING EML. COMBINED WITH
   STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLYS...RISK FOR LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE PRESENT WHILE
   A CLUSTER-TYPE CONVECTIVE MODE MAY LIMIT SIGNIFICANT HAIL
   PRODUCTION.
   
   POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION SHOULD BE TIED TO THE DRYLINE
   IN WRN OK TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN WRN TX. WITH MORE
   MERIDIONAL/SLIGHTLY WEAKER DEEP-LAYER FLOW RELATIVE TO AREAS FARTHER
   N...AND WITH COVERAGE PROGGED TO REMAIN ISOLATED...WILL ONLY ADD
   MARGINAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM.
   
   ...LOWER GREAT LAKES...
   UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD REMAIN PREVALENT
   AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING LK ONTARIO/ERIE. WITH STRONG
   HEATING...MLCAPE WILL LIKELY REACH 1000-2000 J/KG. GIVEN VEERING
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH HEIGHT...ON THE SRN FRINGE OF AN INTENSE
   MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS NRN LOWER MI INTO SRN QUEBEC...SUPERCELL WIND
   PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL FAVOR A RISK FOR LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS DURING THE
   LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..GRAMS/MOSIER.. 05/25/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z