Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 301225
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0725 AM CDT MON APR 30 2012
   
   VALID 301300Z - 011200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MS
   AND OH VALLEYS...
   
   MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MOST OF
   THE WESTERN...PLAINS...AND MIDWEST STATES.  A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
   TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW REGIME WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY...PROVIDING A AXIS OF SHOWERS AND
   THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TX INTO WV/PA.
   
   ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
   KS/OK/MO.  THESE STORMS HAVE RESULTED IN A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM AMA-SPS-ADM-FSM.  EASTERLY LOW
   LEVEL WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT
   AMPLE MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.  MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS
   AGREE ON STORMS FORMING ALONG THE DRYLINE/REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   BETWEEN 19-22Z...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW NEAR THE 4-CORNERS
   AREA APPROACHES THE REGION.  THE 12Z AMA RAOB ALSO SUPPORTS RATHER
   EARLY INITIATION WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ONLY A MINIMAL CAP. 
   STRONG DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND MEAN FLOW ORTHOGONAL TO
   DRYLINE WILL PROMOTE DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY LARGE
   HAIL POSSIBLE.  THE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
   EVOLUTION OF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO
   BE SOME RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES DURING THE EVENING FROM SOUTHWEST KS
   INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST OK.  DURING THE EVENING...STORMS
   MAY GROW UPSCALE AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   WESTERN/CENTRAL OK WITH AN CONTINUED RISK OF HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS.
   
   ...MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...
   WEAKENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ALONG
   AN AXIS FROM SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST AR INTO CENTRAL IL.  THIS
   ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN OK...WHICH IS
   FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO IL/IND BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
   POSITIONED ROUGHLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE OH RIVER LATER TODAY AND
   SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  EARLY
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT RATHER STRONG HEATING WILL
   OCCUR ACROSS THIS REGION...LEADING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000
   J/KG.  MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
   ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING
   AS A LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS KY.
   
   ..SMITH/HART.. 04/30/2012
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z