Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 282133
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0433 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2012
   
   VALID 282000Z - 291200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE LWR OH VALLEY INTO CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND VIRGINIA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE EAST CNTRL PLAINS INTO LWR MO VALLEY...
   
   CORRECTED SVR PROBABILITY GRAPHICS FOR E CNTRL PLAINS/MO VALLEY AREA
   
   ...20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE...
   CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC LINES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED AT LEAST
   SLIGHTLY IN A NUMBER OF AREAS IN AN ATTEMPT TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING
   DESTABILIZATION TRENDS.
   
   ...OH VALLEY/NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
   PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A NARROW
   PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER...NOW SLOWLY
   SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND A BIT MORE RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD
   ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA
   PENINSULA.  THIS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
   REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AS LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS
   GRADUALLY VEER IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGHING SHIFTING EAST
   SOUTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 40-50 KT
   WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW/SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...THE
   PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR CONCERNING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO
   BE THE LACK OF STRONGER OR MORE FOCUSED FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER
   UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.  THIS MAY LIMIT SUBSTANTIAL FURTHER UPSCALE
   CONVECTIVE GROWTH...BUT LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
   
   ...EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
   AS A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PROGRESSES THROUGH BROADLY
   ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS...ONGOING STORM
   DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
   SHIFTING EASTWARD...THEN SOUTHEASTWARD...ALONG A LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL
   ZONE NEAR THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. 
   THIS IS ON THE PERIPHERY OF NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTING WARM ELEVATED
   MIXED LAYER AIR...WHICH PROBABLY WILL INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT
   ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.
   
   ...S CNTRL TX...
   LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN ADDED...AS MODERATELY LARGE CAPE
   DEVELOPS NEAR A REMNANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX...WHICH COULD
   ENHANCE AND FOCUS STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/28/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2012/
   
   ...CENTRAL/ERN KS INTO WRN MO...
   THIS AREA IS LOCATED ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW
   ALOFT....COINCIDENT WITH A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   EXTENDING ACROSS KS TOWARD WRN MO.  AT THE SURFACE... LOW PRESSURE
   IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS A WEAKENING
   UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS THE WRN STATES.  AN
   EAST/WEST WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MO/SRN KS IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
   SLOWLY NWD DURING THE PERIOD...AS MODEST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
   TRANSPORT INCREASING MOISTURE NWD INTO KS/WRN MO.  VISIBLE IMAGERY
   SHOWS LIMITED CLOUDS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF KS INTO MO WHICH WILL
   PERMIT STRONG DIURNAL HEATING TO OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THIS
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000
   J/KG EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
   
   DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS LIKELY TO BE WEAK AS
   SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SUBTLE PERTURBATION MOVING OVER WRN KS
   ATTM.  HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING AND MODEST LOW LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
   SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN THE CAP THIS AFTERNOON FOR CONVECTION TO
   INITIATE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN KS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
    FORECAST WIND PROFILES EXHIBIT STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND
   SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR /35-45 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM/ TO SUPPORT
   ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.  VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
   STRONGER CELLS.  ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A SMALL MCS THIS EVENING
   AS CELLULAR COLD POOLS MERGE AND GROW UPSCALE...WITH ACTIVITY
   SPREADING EWD/ESEWD INTO PARTS OF WRN MO TONIGHT.  SEVERE THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER 03Z-06Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING
   OCCURS.
   
   ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION INTO CENTRAL KY...
   A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM SRN NEW
   ENGLAND WSWWD ACROSS PA AND OH...ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE PLUME OF
   STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE AREA.  A FEW
   OF THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED MARGINAL HAIL AS UPDRAFT INTENSITY HAS
   BEEN ENHANCED BY THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT.  
   
   VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES LIMITED CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF THE
   CONVECTIVE BAND WHERE STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING IS OCCURRING. 
   ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MARGINAL WITH EWD EXTENT THIS
   MORNING...MOISTURE FROM LOWER OH VALLEY/TN VALLEY REGION IS BEING
   TRANSPORTED RAPIDLY NEWD WITHIN A BAND OF VERY STRONG WSWLY LOW
   LEVEL WINDS.  AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS AND MOISTENS...THE
   ELEVATED CONVECTION /ESPECIALLY FROM SRN OH INTO SWRN PA/ IS
   EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME SURFACE-BASED WITH A COINCIDENT
   INCREASE IN SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL.  THIS WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR
   THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL TO REACH THE SURFACE
   WITHIN CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS...PARTICULARLY FOR ANY SHORT BOWING
   LINE SEGMENTS THAT MAY DEVELOP.  IN ADDITION...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
   ALSO FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CORES.  THE
   SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
   WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET.
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z