Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 040031
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0631 PM CST SAT MAR 03 2012
   
   VALID 040100Z - 041200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN FL...
   
   ...NRN FL...
   
   WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   NRN FL THROUGH 12Z PRIMARILY DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE AHEAD
   OF UPPER TROUGH.  HOWEVER...00Z SOUNDINGS TBW AND JAX EXHIBIT A ZONE
   OF WARMER SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE PROFILES MAXIMIZED NEAR 600MB.  THIS
   WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY PREVENT DEEP UPDRAFTS FROM FORMING AHEAD OF
   THE COLD FRONT AND THE PRIMARY STORM MODE SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT
   LINEAR IN NATURE WITH A PROPENSITY FOR POST FRONTAL CONVECTION. 
   EVEN SO THERE REMAINS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A FEW ROBUST UPDRAFTS
   COULD EVOLVE LATER TONIGHT JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVE INLAND AHEAD OF
   STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL JET.  FOR THIS REASON IT REMAINS POSSIBLE
   THAT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE
   FRONTAL CONVECTION.
   
   ..DARROW.. 03/04/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z