Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 030534
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1134 PM CST FRI MAR 02 2012
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN GULF
   COAST INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...
   
   ...SERN U.S...
   
   LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO
   THE MS VALLEY REGION BY 04/00Z.  DOWNSTREAM...A BROAD CORRIDOR OF
   STRONG MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
   ERN U.S. FROM THE NWRN GOM INTO NEW ENGLAND.  DURING THE OVERNIGHT
   HOURS IT APPEARS SECONDARY INTENSIFICATION OF THE MID LEVEL JET WILL
   OCCUR WHICH SHOULD FORCE A SHARPENING COLD FRONT SEWD ACROSS NRN FL
   INTO THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA.
   
   PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL SURGE...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK
   SFC LOW/WAVE WILL FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NCNTRL GOM
   WHICH WILL THEN TRACK NEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOWARD THE FL
   PANHANDLE BY 18Z.  VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
   ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE SFC DEW
   POINTS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S.  ALTHOUGH FORECAST LAPSE
   RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STEEP...MODEST INSTABILITY WITHIN
   A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FAVORS THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
   STORMS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  CURRENT THINKING
   IS THE PRIMARY STORM MODE SHOULD BE LINEAR IN NATURE...ESPECIALLY
   GIVEN THAT ONGOING CONVECTION INLAND ACROSS MS/AL HAS EVOLVED INTO A
   SQUALL LINE.  THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT WEAK SFC HEATING WILL
   PROVIDE ENOUGH ADDITIONAL BUOYANCY FOR A FEW PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELLS
   ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SFC
   WAVE.  IF DISCRETE UPDRAFTS CAN EVOLVE THEN A FEW TORNADOES COULD BE
   NOTED.  OTHERWISE...STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN SEVERE
   THREAT AND HAIL COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE MORE ROBUST STORMS ACROSS
   THE SWRN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT
   GREATER THAN ACROSS COASTAL CAROLINAS.
   
   ..DARROW/SMITH.. 03/03/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z