Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 021956
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0156 PM CST FRI MAR 02 2012
   
   VALID 022000Z - 031200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
   INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...A LARGE PORTION OF KENTUCKY...AND
   NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
   INDIANA...SOUTHERN OHIO...WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...WESTERN
   VIRGINIA...FAR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...KENTUCKY...MOST OF
   TENNESSEE...NORTHERN GEORGIA...THE NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA...PARTS
   OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND A SMALL PORTION OF
   NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND
   LOWER MS VALLEY AND OH/TN VALLEYS EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
   INTO THE CAROLINAS/WRN VA AND VICINITY...
   
   ...OH/LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...
   MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS UNDERWAY...WITH SEVERE/SUPERCELL
   STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE RISK AREA.  THE ONGOING
   FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
   SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY -- INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER-END
   EVENTS CAPABLE OF SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE.
   
   MAIN CHANGES THIS FORECAST ARE CONFINED TO ADJUSTMENTS ON THE NWRN
   PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK...WHERE EWD ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
   HAS BROUGHT THE THREAT TO AN END ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF IL AND MO. 
   OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TO CONTINUE THROUGH
   THIS AFTERNOON AND WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 03/02/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WITH VORTICITY CENTER CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
   NRN MO WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS THE MS...TN AND OH
   VALLEY REGIONS TODAY. STRONG WIND SHEAR WITH THIS TROUGH WILL
   OVERSPREAD A LARGE AND EXPANDING WARM SECTOR FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
   WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
   
   SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM S CNTRL IL NEWD ACROSS INDIANA AND
   EVENTUALLY INTO LOWER MI TODAY. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL
   SWWD ALONG THE MS RIVER DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE A WARM FRONT
   LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE OH RIVER. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND WARM AIR
   WILL EXIST E OF THE COLD FRONT AND WILL RAPIDLY REPLACE COOL SURFACE
   AIR NOW OVER PORTIONS OF IND...KY AND OH.
   
   *** OUTBREAK OF STRONG TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY TODAY
   OVER A LARGE AREA ***
   
   ...SRN IL...IND...OH...KY...NRN TN...
   STORMS ARE CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING OVER IL AND SERN MO NEAR THE LOW
   AND ALONG THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...THE WARM FRONT HAS
   RAPIDLY LIFTED NWD OVER THIS AREA...REPLACING COOL AIR WITH WARM AND
   UNSTABLE AIR. FURTHER WARMING WILL OCCUR EWD INTO OH LATER TODAY.
   THIS IS AN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND
   DAMAGING WINDS...NEAR THE LOW TRACK...AHEAD OF THE UPPER VORTICITY
   CENTER AND NEAR THE RETREATING WARM FRONT. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
   REMAIN STRONG...AS WILL FORCING. STORMS CURRENTLY OVER SERN MO/IL
   SHOULD THRIVE AS THEY MOVE ACROSS A WIDE AND DESTABILIZING WARM
   SECTOR. THIS SHOULD FAVOR LONG LIVED AND FAST MOVING TORNADIC
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF EXTENSIVE DAMAGE. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
   WANE LATE THIS EVENING NEAR THE ERN FRINGE OF THE MDT RISK AREA AS
   LOW LEVELS COOL.
   
   ...ERN TN...MS/AL/GA...
   TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER NRN AL MOVING INTO
   ERN TN AND PERHAPS CLIPPING FAR NWRN GA. THESE CELLS FORMED IN AN
   AREA OF WARM ADVECTION...AND THE ENTIRE WARM SECTOR IS ALREADY
   UNCAPPED. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREAS OF STORMS SHOULD BE LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON...ALONG AND EVEN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM LA INTO MS
   AND AGAIN AL AND TN. DEEP LIFT WILL EASILY SUSTAIN STORMS IN A VERY
   UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND LONG HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS
   CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z