Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 071257
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0757 AM CDT FRI OCT 07 2011
   
   VALID 071300Z - 081200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN HI PLNS
   NNE INTO THE CNTRL PLNS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   POTENT LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER NW SD...ASSOCIATED WITH
   LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE RCKYS/GRT BASIN...SHOULD EJECT NNE INTO
   WRN MB BY THIS EVE AND INTO WRN ONT EARLY SAT.  AT THE SAME
   TIME...UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE LWR CO VLY SHOULD MOVE E TO
   THE AZ/NM BORDER BY THIS EVE...BEFORE TURNING NEWD INTO NE NM/SE CO
   EARLY SAT.  ELSEWHERE...AN ARC OF UPR RIDGING WILL PERSIST FROM E TX
   THROUGH THE MID MS VLY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.  
   
   AT LWR LVLS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SD IMPULSE SHOULD ADVANCE
   STEADILY E/NE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NW MN...WHILE DECELERATING OVER
   CNTRL/SRN PLNS.  APPROACH OF SWRN STATES IMPULSE SHOULD INDUCE SFC
   WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY TNGT/EARLY SAT NEAR THE NM/TX
   BORDER.  THE LOW SHOULD THEN MOVE N INTO SE CO OR FAR WRN KS BY 12Z
   SAT...WITH ACTUAL POSITION OF THE LOW MODULATED BY CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE ALONG THAT PART OF THE FRONT.  
   
   ...SRN HI PLNS TO MN TODAY THROUGH EARLY SAT...
   MULTIPLE AND...IN SOME AREAS...REPETITIVE ROUNDS OF TSTMS ARE
   EXPECTED INVOF STALLING FRONT FROM FAR ERN NM/W TX NNE INTO MN  LATE
   THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY SAT.  ACTIVITY THIS AFTN WILL BE DRIVEN
   LARGELY BY SFC HEATING AS WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL EXIST ATOP
   THOSE PORTIONS OF THE FRONT LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST LOW
   LVL CONVERGENCE/HEATING/MOISTURE INFLOW.  PERSISTENT ERN U.S. SFC
   RIDGE WILL KEEP CORRIDOR OF GREATEST LOW LVL MOISTURE INFLOW AIMED
   AT W TX...FAR ERN NM...THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION...WRN KS...AND
   CNTRL NEB THROUGH THE PERIOD.  PW OF 1.00-1.25 INCHES...RELATIVELY
   STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AND 35-40 KT MEAN SSWLY LOW TO MID
   TROPOSPHERIC FLOW MAY YIELD BANDS OF REGENERATIVE STORMS WITH SMALL
   BOWING SEGMENTS/WEAKLY ROTATING STRUCTURES THAT COULD YIELD LOCALLY
   DMGG WIND...AN ISOLD TORNADO...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
   
   DEEP WIND FIELD AND FORCING FOR ASCENT/UPR DIVERGENCE SHOULD
   STRENGTHEN THIS EVE THROUGH EARLY SAT OVER THE SRN HI PLNS AS SWRN
   U.S. UPR IMPULSE APPROACHES REGION.  COUPLED WITH NOCTURNAL
   INTENSIFICATION OF LLJ...HODOGRAPHS MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
   SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS.  BUT WITH CONVECTION ALREADY LIKELY TO BE
   FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...STORM MODE MAY REMAIN COMPLEX/LARGELY LINEARLY
   ORGANIZED.  NEVERTHELESS...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELLS/SUSTAINED STORMS WITHIN CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS...WITH AN
   ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
   
   CLOUDS AND MORE MODEST LOW LVL MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT SVR THREAT
   THROUGH THE PERIOD NWD ACROSS MN...WITH COMPARATIVELY WEAK DEEP
   SHEAR LIMITING POTENTIAL SUSTAINED SVR STORMS OVER FAR SW PART OF
   SLGT RISK AREA.
   
   ..CORFIDI/LEITMAN.. 10/07/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z