Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 010557
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1257 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2011
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NERN STATES
   SWD INTO VA/NC...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH
   PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED 100 KT MID LEVEL JET MAX WILL MOVE
   EWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WITH JET CORE CLIPPING NRN NY/NEW
   ENGLAND BY AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL UPPER HEIGHT FALLS. AT THE
   SURFACE...A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EWD
   OVER NY/PA AND TO THE COAST BY EVENING. SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS.
   
   TO THE W...BROAD SWLY FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE WRN STATES WITH A
   LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR THE CNTRL PACIFIC COAST. MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW
   WILL OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE LEE TROUGHING
   HELPS TO BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWWD INTO NM.
   
   ...NORTHEAST STATES SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...
   A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE THIS
   MORNING ACROSS PA/NY AND SPREADING NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. 00Z
   SOUNDINGS FROM THIS EVENING SHOWED AROUND 4000 J/KG MUCAPE WITH
   UPPER 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS.
   
   SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE
   REGION. BY MID MORNING...MODELS ARE ADAMANT IN PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
   CONVECTION BY AROUND 15-18Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN LITTLE
   CAPPING IN PLACE.  HOWEVER...THIS MAY PROVE A BIT DETRIMENTAL TO
   OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. STILL...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...40-50 KT
   MID LEVEL FLOW AND HEATING AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING STORMS WILL
   FOSTER DAMAGING WINDS...POSSIBLY ORGANIZED INTO ONE OR MORE
   CLUSTERS. IF STORM MODE DOES NOT BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT...A FEW
   SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY CAPABLE OF A FEW VERY LARGE
   HAILSTONES.
   
   ...CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   STRONG DAY TIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A LEE TROUGH WILL
   RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN NM INTO
   WRN KS/NEB AND SERN CO. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR WITH STEEP LOW
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM NM INTO TX. MEANWHILE...A PLUME OF HIGHER
   BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NWWD
   ACROSS OK AND INTO KS/NEB ADVECTING NWWD AROUND THE MIDWESTERN
   SURFACE HIGH. MODELS SUGGEST SOME SEMBLANCE OF THE ONGOING TX
   PANHANDLE CONVECTION MAY REMAIN FROM TX INTO PORTIONS OF OK
   EARLY...BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL EXIST LATE AFTERNOON FROM ERN NM
   INTO SERN CO AND WRN KS NEAR THE LEE TROUGH. HERE...MODEST SWLY FLOW
   ALOFT ATOP SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
   LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTIONS.
   STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS SWRN NEB/NWRN KS MAY RESULT IN
   A TORNADO OR TWO WITH ANY SUPERCELLS.
   
   ..JEWELL/HURLBUT.. 06/01/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z