The SPC is forecasting ...tornado outbreak expected over parts of the southern and central plains and ozarks this afternoon through early wednesday.... Please read the latest public statement about this event.
| Categorical Graphic |
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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic |
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic |
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic |
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
SPC AC 241625 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK...AND NORTH CENTRAL TX... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TX...MOST OF OK...MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MO...AND NORTHWEST AR.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ACROSS THE MID MS/OH/TN VALLEYS...INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.... ...AN INTENSE OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF KS/OK/TX... ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A VIGOROUS AND PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED THIS EVENING. LATEST TCC PROFILER DATA SHOWS 90+ KNOT FLOW AT 6KM...INDICATIVE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX THAT WILL NOSE INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE... SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TX...OK...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KS. BY MID AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS INTO WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX. STRONG HEATING AND RICH MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH NEAR DRY-ADIABATIC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL YIELD AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 4000-4500 J/KG. PRESENT INDICATIONS AND LATEST OPERATIONS/MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE KS/OK DRYLINE BY MID AFTERNOON AND MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD WITH A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. EARLY IN THE EVENT...THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE OVER KS AS STORMS INTERACT WITH PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...CONTINUED HEATING AND LARGE SCALE LIFT DUE TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MAY LEAD TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO TRACK ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA DURING THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE STRENGTHENING...WITH ALL CONDITIONS FAVORING THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACKED STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL OK...AND CENTRAL KS. DURING THE LATE EVENING...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF MO/AR WITH AN ENHANCED RISK OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ...MID ATLANTIC STATES... A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN VA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST BY EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER...40-50 KNOT MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ..HART/GRAMS.. 05/24/2011 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z