Storm Prediction Center Oct 27, 2010 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Public Severe Weather Outlook

Oct 27, 2010 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Oct 27 00:44:45 UTC 2010
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
The SPC is forecasting ...widespread/significant severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the ohio and tennessee valleys and great lakes.... Please read the latest public statement about this event.

Categorical Graphic

Probabilistic Tornado Graphic


Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic


Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

   SPC AC 270041
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0741 PM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010
   
   VALID 270100Z - 271200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN AL/GA NEWD ACROSS THE
   APPALACHIANS AND PIEDMONT AND INTO ERN PA...NJ...FAR SRN NY...
   
   ...NRN AL/GA NEWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT INTO MD/DE...
   THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EWD WITH NUMEROUS STORMS
   ALONG/AHEAD OF IT. 00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY
   WITH RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT...BUT WIND SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY
   STRONG. ONGOING SEVERE STORMS...SOME POSSIBLY TORNADIC...ARE
   EXPECTED IN A CORRIDOR FROM FAR NERN AL ACROSS NRN GA AND THE WRN
   CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. FARTHER N...THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT MAY
   INCREASE AS A 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES E OF THE APPALACHIANS
   WITH DEWPOINTS OF 68-72 F SURGING NWD. EXPECT ONGOING STORM CLUSTERS
   FROM NRN GA/ERN TX/WRN CAROLINAS TO EXPAND NEWD INTO VA THIS EVENING
   WITH A TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
   
   ...NY/PA/NJ...
   A WEAKENING LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY COLD
   FRONT SURGE WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS SRN NY AND PA THIS EVENING.
   COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT
   HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE WEAKENING...WITH NO LIGHTNING OBSERVED
   RECENTLY. HOWEVER...SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG PRESSURE RISES
   ON THE ORDER OF 4 TO 5 MB/2HR...AND THERE IS A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT
   EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN PA/MD AND NJ. A PERSISTENT AND STRONG SWLY
   LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALLOW FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION...WITH A FEW SEVERE
   WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS TO OCCUR WILL BE
   ACROSS ERN PA AND NJ.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 10/27/2010
   
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