Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

   SPC AC 261245
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0745 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010
   
   VALID 261300Z - 271200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF
   INDIANA...OHIO...KENTUCKY AND LOWER MICHIGAN...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK
   AREA...FROM THE TN VLY INTO MI...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREAS
   FROM THE LWR MS VLY TO THE APPALACHIANS AND LWR GRT LKS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   POWERFUL /100 KT/ MID LVL JET STREAK NOW OVER MO WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY
   NE ACROSS THE OH VLY TODAY AND INTO THE LWR GRT LKS TONIGHT/EARLY
   WED AS ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW OVER ERN SD MOVES SLOWLY NE INTO
   ONTARIO...AND BAND OF STRONG UPSTREAM FLOW OVER THE RCKYS SPREADS E
   ACROSS THE PLNS.
   
   AT LWR LVLS...DEEP SFC LOW NOW OVER MN LIKELY WILL FURTHER DEEPEN AS
   IT MOVES SLOWLY N/NE INTO ONTARIO.  COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM
   THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SVR TSTMS THIS PERIOD AS THE
   FRONT ACCELERATES E/SE ACROSS THE OH AND TN VLYS TODAY...AND OVER
   THE LWR GRT LKS/APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND EARLY WED.
   
   
   ...MS/OH VLYS INTO GRT LKS/APPALACHIANS TODAY THROUGH EARLY WED...
   
   SVR TSTMS NOW IN PROGRESS OVER THE MID MS VLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
   AND MOVE/DEVELOP EWD THROUGH EARLY WED...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
   WIDESPREAD DMGG WIND AND FEW STRONG TORNADOES.
   
   INTENSE WIND PROFILES INVOF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT... INCREASING
   LOW LVL MOISTURE...AND MODEST SFC HEATING SHOULD FOSTER FURTHER
   STRENGTHENING OF MID/LWR MS VLY QLCS THROUGH THIS AFTN AS THE FRONT
   CONTINUES GENERALLY E ACROSS THE OH AND TN VLYS.  AS THE MAIN UPR
   VORT LOBE NOW OVER IA/MO SWEEPS NE IN A NEGATIVE-TILT FASHION TOWARD
   THE UPR GRT LKS...EXPECT THAT FORCED LINE OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED
   SMALL BOWS ALSO WILL BUILD NWD ACROSS MI.  POTENTIAL WILL THEREFORE
   EXIST FOR SWATHS OF DMGG WIND...AND FOR TORNADOES /ONE OR TWO
   POSSIBLY STRONG/...WITH EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES.
   
   A BIT FARTHER S AND E...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE
   COMPARATIVELY WEAK OVER KY...SW OH...AND THE TN VLY AS REGION IS
   ONLY GLANCED BY IA/MO VORT.  BUT VERY STRONG WIND PROFILES /WITH
   MORE SUBSTANTIAL VEERING THAN POINTS N/...AND AVAILABILITY OF
   INCREASINGLY RICH MOISTURE /PW AOA 1.50 INCHES WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
   THE MID TO UPR 60S/...SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW QUASI-DISCRETE
   STORMS OR BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AS CINH IS
   BREACHED.  THESE COULD POTENTIALLY YIELD A FEW STRONG AND LONG-LIVED
   TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DMGG WIND AND SVR HAIL .
   
   WHILE THE MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSE STORMS SHOULD EXIST
   IN THE MDT/HIGH RISK AREAS THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTN...THE SVR THREAT
   WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WED BOTH AHEAD OF FAST-MOVING PART OF
   COLD FRONT OVER THE UPR OH VLY AND THE NRN HALF OF THE
   APPALACHIANS...AND ALONG MORE SLOWLY-MOVING PART OF FRONT AND
   PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU/NRN GULF CST
   STATES.
   
   ..CORFIDI/GRAMS.. 10/26/2010
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z