SPC AC 311604
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2010
VALID 311630Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CO/KS/OK/TX...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF GA/SC/NC...
...SYNOPSIS...
ZONAL FLOW WITH GENERALLY WEAK EMBEDDED MID LEVEL S/W TROUGHS
CHARACTERIZES THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. TYPICAL
LATE SPRING WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COVERS MUCH OF THE
AREA E OF THE ROCKIES. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME COMMON IN
MANY AREAS TRIGGERED BY DAYTIME HEATING...GIVEN THE OVERALL WEAK
SHEAR AND SUBTLE BOUNDARIES IT IS DIFFICULT TO DELINEATE REGIONS
THAT WOULD BE WORTHY OF MORE THAN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
...CO/KS/OK/TX...
OUTFLOW FROM THE OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL
OK HAS HELPED TO PUSH A FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TX. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE AND EASTERN NM WHERE STRONGER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH THE
PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8C/KM WILL PUSH
MLCAPES TO AOA 2000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST
CO/NORTHEAST NM. THESE STORMS WILL THEN SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT
INTO SOUTHERN KS...THE TX PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN OK. STRONG
INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS LIKELY TO BE
PRESENT ALONG THIS CORRIDOR...HELPING TO PROMOTE MCS DEVELOPMENT AND
THE RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
...SERN U.S...
THE OLD UPPER LOW THAT HAD STALLED OVER MS LAST COUPLE DAYS IS NOW
OPENING UP AND DRIFTING ENEWD ACROSS SRN APPALACHIANS BY THIS
EVENING. MORNING RAOBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AMPLE LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH
SUBSTANTIAL DAYTIME HEATING OVER GA/SC/NC WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS TODAY. COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AOB -10C AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500+ J/KG WILL PROMOTE A
RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS IN AREAS THAT
CAN EXPERIENCE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.
..HALES/JEWELL.. 05/31/2010
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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