Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

   SPC AC 101958
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0258 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010
   
   VALID 102000Z - 111200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
   KS AND CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHERN KS/MUCH OF OK TO
   SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST AR...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
   PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
   
   ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY...
   RELATIVELY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRIOR DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
   HOWEVER...DID EXPAND THE CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK SOUTHWARD TO THE
   RED RIVER AREA OF OK/TX...WHERE A REASONABLE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AT
   LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT PER UPSTREAM CU FIELD ON
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST HIGH RES NUMERICAL
   GUIDANCE/ASSORTMENT OF 15Z SREF MEMBERSHIP.
   
   OTHERWISE..FAST MOVING/LONG-LIVED/INTENSE SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
   HAIL/STRONG TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
   HIGH/MODERATE RISK AREAS OF KS/OK TO SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST AR
   THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING. PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST WATCHES/SPC
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR THE MOST CONTEMPORARY SHORT TERM GUIDANCE.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/10/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010/
   
   ...A FEW STRONG AND POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACK TORNADOES...ALONG WITH
   VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/NE OK AND EXTREME S CENTRAL/SE
   KS...
   
   A POWERFUL AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRACKING RAPIDLY
   EASTWARD ACROSS CO/NM THIS MORNING...AND WILL EMERGE INTO THE HIGH
   PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A BROAD AREA OF
   STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IS TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE
   QUICKLY NORTHWARD WITH MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOW AS FAR NORTH AS
   SOUTHERN OK.  LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO ERODING ACROSS OK WHICH WILL
   RESULT IN A VERY POTENT SEVERE WEATHER SETUP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 
   VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING THE
   POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL TORNADO AND SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK OVER
   PORTIONS OF KS/OK.
   
   ...SOUTHWEST KS...
   INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
   DRYLINE OVER SOUTHWEST KS.  LOW CLOUDS ARE ERODING FROM THE WEST IN
   THIS AREA...LEADING TO A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY.  LARGE
   SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION WILL ARRIVE IN THIS AREA
   FIRST...WHERE THE CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD BE WEAK.  WIND PROFILES
   SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
   AND TORNADOES.  LONGEVITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS
   ON SPEED OF DESTABILIZATION FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL KS.
   
   ...SOUTHERN KS/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OK...
   THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY IS LIKELY TO BEGIN AROUND
   21Z IN NORTH CENTRAL OR POTENTIALLY NORTHWEST OK ALONG THE DRYLINE. 
   THIS WILL ALSO BE NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT INTERSECTION OF THE DRYLINE
   AND RETREATING WARM FRONT.  STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL BE IN AN
   ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY VERY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER /EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR OF 50-75 KNOTS/ AND LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH OF
   250-350 M2/S2/...ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
   60S/ AND CAPE /RELATIVELY UNCAPPED MLCAPE OVER 3000 J/KG/.  STORMS
   SHOULD BECOME RAPIDLY SUPERCELLULAR AND RACE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
   ACROSS SOUTHERN KS AND NORTHERN OK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING.  PARAMETERS INDICATE A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG AND EVEN LONG-TRACK TORNADOES.  VERY
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALSO APPEAR LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST
   CELLS.
   
   THE EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRYLINE REMAINS A
   QUESTION.  SOME OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
   SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT...SUGGESTING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SEVERE
   STORMS COULD BE AS FAR SOUTH AS I-40.  HOWEVER...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
   REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE HIGH RISK AREA.  ANY STORM
   THAT FORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE IN OK TODAY WILL POSE A THREAT OF
   STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.
   
   SURFACE DRYLINE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TX...AND MAY PROVIDE
   THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
   EVENING.  LACK OF SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE FORCING AND A RATHER STRONG
   CAPPING INVERSION SUGGEST THAT AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE
   QUITE SPARSE.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z