The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central and southern plains this afternoon and tonight.... Please read the latest public statement about this event.
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SPC AC 101233 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0733 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010 VALID 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR CENTRAL/NE OK AND SE KS... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK IN KS...OK...SW MO...AND NW AR... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL/NW TX TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT... ...A FEW STRONG/LONG-TRACK TORNADOES...ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/NE OK AND EXTREME S CENTRAL/SE KS... ...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON TO MO OVERNIGHT... RAPID CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AS A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS MOVES QUICKLY EWD TO CENTRAL KS/NRN OK BY THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUES ENEWD TO THE MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOIST AIR MASS /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F/ WILL SURGE NWD FROM NW/N CENTRAL TX TO CENTRAL AND NRN OK BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTENING WILL OCCUR BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND IN RESPONSE TO EWD DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS SW/S CENTRAL KS. THE MOST FAVORABLE PHASING OF THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/N CENTRAL/NE OK...AND THE ADJACENT BORDER COUNTIES IN KS. OVERNIGHT...THE BELT OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ACCELERATE ENEWD OVER MO AT A FASTER RATE THAN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE ABLE TO MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE...RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN THE SEVERE STORM/TORNADO RISK LATER TONIGHT. DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED BY 18-20Z IN SW KS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE MID-UPPER JET. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR FARTHER SE ALONG THE SRN KS/NRN OK DRYLINE AROUND 21-22Z...WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE SWD INTO CENTRAL OK AND NW TX CLOSER TO 22-00Z. THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE MID-UPPER JET CORE SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY TAKE UP TO AN HOUR OR SO TO MATURE. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE SRH OF 400-600 M2/S2...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F AND MLCAPE OF 2000-3500 J/KG ALL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/LONG-TRACK TORNADOES IN THE MDT-HIGH RISK AREAS. THE TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL THREAT SHOULD MAXIMIZE FROM ABOUT 22-02Z IN OK/SE KS...WITH A GRADUAL EVOLUTION TO A MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL OVERNIGHT ACROSS MO. POTENTIAL CONCERNS WILL BE THE LATE ARRIVAL AND NARROW WIDTH OF THE WARM SECTOR COMPARED TO THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND FAST STORM MOTIONS. A COMPARISON OF EXPECTED 45-50 KT STORM MOTIONS WITH WARM SECTOR WIDTH/PROGRESSION SUGGESTS A 2-3 HOUR WINDOW FOR SUPERCELLS TO MATURE AND REMAIN WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS EXTREME SRN/SERN KS AND NRN/NERN OK THIS EVENING. STILL...IT APPEARS THIS WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT SUPERCELL/TORNADO RISK FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...INCLUDING THE WICHITA...TULSA...AND OKLAHOMA CITY METROPOLITAN AREAS. ..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 05/10/2010 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z