SPC AC 081258
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 AM CDT SUN MAR 08 2009
VALID 081300Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN MO...IL...AND
IND...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE MID MS
AND LWR OH VLYS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX SERIES OF SPEED MAXIMA WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY TROUGH NOW
DIGGING INTO THE WRN U.S. FROM WRN CANADA...WHILE RIDGE PERSISTS
FROM THE GULF OF MEX INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL
ACCELERATE POTENT KS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ENE INTO IL TODAY...AND INTO
MI/IND TONIGHT...BEFORE THE SYSTEM TURNS MORE E OR ESE INTO NY/PA
EARLY MON.
AT THE SFC...LOW NOW OVER N CNTRL MO SHOULD REACH SRN LK MI BY EARLY
EVE...AND UPSTATE NY BY 12Z MONDAY...AS TRAILING COLD FRONT SETTLES
SE INTO THE TN...LWR MS...AND RED RVR VLYS. WRN PART OF BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO RE-FORM NWD ACROSS OK AND KS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
AMPLIFYING WRN U.S. TROUGH INDUCES LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN CO.
...MID MS INTO LWR OH VLYS...
LEADING EDGE OF DPVA/STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH KS UPR IMPULSE
HAS OVERTAKEN WRN EDGE OF SFC WARM SECTOR IN THE PAST HOUR. THIS
LIKELY HAS SUPPORTED RECENT INCREASE IN STRENGTH OF STORMS ALONG
COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING W CNTRL MO.
AREA VWP/PROFILER DATA SHOW VERY STRONG WIND FIELD ACCOMPANYING THE
KS VORT...WITH MID LVL WSW FLOW NEAR 100 KTS...AND 40-50 KT 0-1 KM
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH 60 KT SWLY LLJ. PERSISTENCE OF LLJ HAS
ALLOWED FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE ACROSS THE OZARKS
INTO THE MID MS AND LWR OH VLYS RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY... WITH STLT
PW DATA AVERAGING AROUND 1.25 INCHES. ALTHOUGH RAOBS SHOW
CONTINUING PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL CIN...500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE
APPEARS TO BE AVAILABLE IN WARM SECTOR GIVEN FORCED UPLIFT.
CLOUDS WILL HINDER WARM SECTOR HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...AND MID LVL
COOLING WILL BE LIMITED AS IMPULSE CONTINUES ENEWD. BUT COMBINED
STRENGTH OF FORCING AND WIND FIELD...COUPLED WITH EVEN MODEST
HEATING...SUGGESTS THAT EXISTING CONVECTIVE BAND LIKELY WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR SVR WIND...HAIL...AND ISOLD TORNADOES
EWD INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS AND LWR OH VLYS THROUGH EARLY EVE.
AHEAD OF THE MAIN AXIS OF ASCENT...SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION AND
INCREASING UPR DIVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SMALLER
CLUSTERS/SHORT BANDS OF STORMS ALONG AND N OF WARM/STNRY FROM NRN IL
INTO NRN IND/OH. DESPITE BEING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...THESE MAY POSE A
MORE ISOLD RISK OF SVR.
..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 03/08/2009
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
|
