Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic

   SPC AC 050823
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 AM CST SAT JAN 05 2008
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO THE
   MID MS VALLEY...
   
   ...NERN TX/ERN OK/SERN KS/NRN LA/AR/SRN MO/SRN IL...
   05/00Z NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH THE E/NEWD
   PROGRESSION OF A DYNAMIC AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO
   TRACK FROM THE SWRN STATES TO THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
   THEN MOVE NEWD INTO THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS BY 12Z TUESDAY. 
   SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SRN PLAINS BY MONDAY
   AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH
   THE LOW DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NE TOWARD IL MONDAY NIGHT.  
   
   DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND EWD
   MOVEMENT OF ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT TOWARD THE MID/LOWER MS
   VALLEY...MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE RETURN /UNDERWAY DURING DAY 1
   AND 2/ WILL CONTINUE AND SUPPORT FURTHER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. 
   ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE MODEST...THE MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME
   SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000
   J/KG OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND ARKLATEX TO 500 J/KG
   NEWD INTO SRN MO/SRN IL. 
   
   AT 12Z MONDAY...TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY
   OVER NRN MO INTO IL WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WAA AND WEAK ELEVATED
   INSTABILITY.  MODELS SUGGEST CONTINUED MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE
   ARKLATEX INTO MO SHOULD WEAKEN INHIBITION FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY
   MONDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER
   TROUGH/SURFACE LOW.  DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE PERIOD
   ACROSS THIS REGION...STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS WITH
   INCREASING DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST THE
   POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS EARLY ACTIVITY. 
   ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
   ACROSS SERN KS/MUCH OF ERN OK AND THEN SWD INTO NERN TX MONDAY
   EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH/
   SURFACE LOW SPREADS NEWD.  A FURTHER INCREASE IN LLJ FROM THE
   ARKLATEX TO IL WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
   SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP ENEWD FROM THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN
   PLAINS.  A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
   WINDS IS EXPECTED FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST
   PERIOD.
   
   ..PETERS.. 01/05/2008
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z