The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected from missouri eastward into ohio later today and tonight.... Please read the latest public statement about this event.
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SPC AC 030636 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0136 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF ERN MO...CENTRAL AND SRN IL...IND AND OH... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO PA... CORRECTED TORNADO/HAIL/WIND PROBABILITY GRAPHICS ...SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE WRN STATES TODAY AS A COUPLE OF PACIFIC TROUGHS AND ACCOMPANYING STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WNWLY FLOW DIG SEWD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BAND OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS AND NERN STATES...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS/IMPULSES TRANSLATING ENEWD IN THIS FLOW FIELD. A MORE DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO ERN CO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO KS/OK TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH... INITIALLY LOCATED OVER SRN QUEBEC WILL TRACK EWD TODAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE QUEBEC TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE NERN STATES WITH THE WRN EXTENT SETTLING SWD AND STALLING IN THE OH VALLEY. FARTHER W...A SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KS AT 12Z TODAY WILL TRACK ENEWD ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS MO INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. ...MID MS/OH VALLEYS... TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY AT 12Z TODAY. STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE MID MS INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL ADVECT MOISTURE NEWD TODAY...WITH SURFACE HEATING/ DESTABILIZATION DOWNSTREAM OF MORNING ACTIVITY SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT EWD INTO OH/KY THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING WLY MID LEVEL WINDS ATOP THE SWLY LLJ WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. A GREATER SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER IL/IND AND SPREADING EWD THROUGH THE REST OF THE OH VALLEY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY... MAINLY ALONG AND S OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO AROUND 70/ BENEATH PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING EWD OVER THIS AREA WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG/ BY AFTERNOON. 50-70 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW SPREADING INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH 30-40 KT SWLY LLJ INTO THIS REGION WILL RESULT IN 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. THE FAVORABLE KINEMATICS AND THERMODYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH THE TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FROM NRN MO INTO CENTRAL IL TO CENTRAL/SRN IND IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR BACKED SURFACE WINDS IN VICINITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND WINDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT... LARGE HODOGRAPHS WILL PROMOTE THREAT FOR TORNADOES...SOME STRONG. MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WITH THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE PRIMARY THREAT EWD THROUGH THE MID-UPPER OH VALLEY AFTER DARK. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN A THREAT GIVEN FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF LLJ ACROSS OH TO WRN PA/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHEAR. THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS MAY DEVELOP EWD LATE TONIGHT ACROSS SRN PA/NRN MD. ...PLAINS STATES... A COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES MOVING SWD ACROSS NEB AND KS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCI FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT TODAY...GIVEN A RESIDUAL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER..SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR EARLIER ACROSS NEB WHERE THE CAP SHOULD BE WEAKER. FARTHER S ACROSS SRN KS...TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY REQUIRE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY TROUGH APPROACHING THIS REGION AND WEAKENING THE STRONGER CAP. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO/WY. ALL OF THESE AREAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...SINCE THIS REGION WILL RESIDE BENEATH STRONG FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 50 KT WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO A COUPLE OF TSTM CLUSTERS/MCSS PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THE FIRST AREA SHOULD BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS A SELY LLJ STRENGTHENS INTO THIS REGION BENEATH PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE SECOND AREA SHOULD BE ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK INTO SWRN MO AS ASCENT WITH THE SRN STREAM TROUGH AND INCREASING WAA ALONG A STRENGTHENING SRN PLAINS LLJ DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA. ...UPPER TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS TO SERN STATES... MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY. 25-40 KT OF NWLY FLOW EXTENDING SEWD INTO WRN CAROLINAS/NRN GA WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..PETERS/JEWELL.. 06/03/2008 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z