Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

   SPC AC 290052
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0752 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2008
   
   VALID 290100Z - 291200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NM...
   
   ...ERN NM...
   SEVERAL SUPERCELL TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS ERN NM...WITH STRONGEST
   STORMS RIDING WITHIN OR ALONG NRN FRINGE OF STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES/HIGHER BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS ECNTRL NM SWD INTO THE
   KROW VCNTY.  EXPECT THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD TOWARD A
   COOLER...LESS BUOYANT AIR MASS ALONG THE TX BORDER WITH TIME THIS
   EVENING...LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO A WEAKENING TREND.  UNTIL
   THEN...GIVEN VERTICAL SHEAR 40-45 KTS AND MODEST INSTABILITY...ISOLD
   TORNADOES...DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY
   STORM.
   
   ...CO FRONT RANGE...
   A COUPLE SVR STORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVED
   ONTO THE LWR CO PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN OWING TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
   AND PRESENCE OF AN E-W ORIENTED FRONT.  LOW-LEVEL FLOW S OF KCOS HAS
   BECOME DOWNSLOPE...BUT REMAINS UPSLOPE INTO THE FRONT RANGE AROUND
   DENVER.  00Z DNR SOUNDING EXHIBITED ABOUT 1000 J/KG MLCAPE...BUT
   ALSO SHOWED STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE ATTEMPTS AT
   INITIATION VCNTY THE FRONT RANGE THIS EVENING WHERE A WEAK DENVER
   CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED...BUT THE ONLY NARROW ZONE OF STRONGER
   INSTABILITY HUGGING THE FRONT RANGE AND THE STRONG MAGNITUDE OF
   SHEAR MAY ACT AS A DETRIMENT TO THE UPDRAFTS AS THEY MOVE ONTO THE
   LWR ELEVATIONS.  THUS...SLGT RISK HAS BEEN DROPPED...MAINTAINING
   ONLY LOW SVR PROBABILITIES IN THE CASE A BRIEF ORGANIZED STORM
   MANAGES TO DEVELOP.
   
   ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NRN ROCKIES...
   STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT /H5 TEMPERATURES AOB MINUS 18 DEG C/
   COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENTLY MOIST MID-LEVELS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO
   NUMEROUS TSTMS ACROSS THE GRT BASIN/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGIONS THIS
   AFTN.  FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN/EVE...STRONGER STORMS SHOULD
   EXIST FROM SRN ID NWD INTO SWRN MT AND ADJACENT PARTS OF ORE/WA
   INVOF A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SLOWLY ROTATING ACROSS THE REGION.  ISOLD
   HAIL/GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW STORMS.
   
   ...MID-MO VLY/CORN BELT...
   A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE LATER TONIGHT WITHIN AN
   INCREASING WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-MO VALLEY. 
   THIS IS WHERE AN ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO
   SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MAINLY
   SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/29/2008
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z