SPC AC 011958
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2008
VALID 012000Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS AND INTO
FAR W CENTRAL MO AND A SMALL PORTION OF NERN OK...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MO VALLEY SWD INTO
ERN OK/WRN AR...
...NERN KS/WRN MO SWD INTO OK/WRN AR...
DRYLINE CONTINUES SHIFTING EWD ACROSS OK/KS...WHILE COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES SEWD ACROSS NRN AND WRN KS. WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE REMAINS MARGINALLY MOIST...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S FROM ERN KS SWD INTO CENTRAL AND ERN OK.
DESPITE THE SOMEWHAT LIMITED NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT PERSIST -- WITH SUBSTANTIAL
CAPE INDICATED ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL CAP. BOUNDARY-LAYER
HEATING/MIXING HAS HELPED TO WEAKEN THE LOW-LEVEL CAP -- PER 20Z
NORMAN OK RAOB -- WHICH COMBINED WITH NEW 12Z HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF OK. MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THOUGH IS STILL ANTICIPATED FURTHER N -- FROM
NRN OK NEWD ACROSS ERN KS -- AS COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
THOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT VEERED/SSWLY ACROSS MOST
OF THE WARM SECTOR ATTM...MODELS SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
BACK FROM CENTRAL OK NWD INTO ERN KS AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG
SEWD-MOVING FRONT OVER WRN OK THIS EVENING. RESULTING INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH GREATER SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FORM OF
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
OVERNIGHT...STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD BECOME MORE LINEAR AS COLD
FRONT PROGRESSES SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS SHOULD THEREFORE MAXIMIZE LATER THIS EVENING FROM ERN KS/NERN
OK INTO WRN MO/NWRN AR.
...MID MO VALLEY REGION...
SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND A NARROW MOIST AXIS ARE INDICATED NEAR AND
JUST E OF THE ERN NEB/WRN IA BORDER ATTM...WITH LIMITED
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ONGOING E OF THE NERN NEB SURFACE LOW. THIS
LOW FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THIS AREA INTO THIS EVENING...AND
SHOULD OCCLUDE WITH TIME AS COLD FRONT SHIFTS SEWD. NEAR AND JUST E
OF THE OCCLUSION...SELY FLOW AND PERSISTENT MOIST AXIS COMBINED WITH
THE SLOW APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE W WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS -- FROM SERN SD SSEWD INTO ERN
NEB/WRN IA. ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE
GUSTS...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES -- MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING.
..GOSS/KIS.. 05/01/2008
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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