Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

   SPC AC 312000
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0300 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008
   
   VALID 312000Z - 011200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS MO/AR OZARKS TO
   WRN/NRN AR...ERN OK...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN TX...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM SRN LM TO
   S-CENTRAL TX...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PATTERN EVIDENT DOWNSTREAM FROM LARGE SCALE
   TROUGH OVER WRN CONUS.  THREE MOST PERTINENT SHORTWAVES FOR THIS
   FCST ARE --
   1. TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SERN NM AND W
   TX...WHICH IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN TX TOWARD
   LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD.
   2. PERTURBATION NOW OVER CENTRAL PLAINS...FCST TO EJECT ENEWD TOWARD
   UPPER GREAT LAKES AND WEAKEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH REMAINDER
   PERIOD...AHEAD OF
   3.  COMPACT BUT STG TROUGH NOW EVIDENT OVER WY...WHICH SHOULD MOVE
   EWD ACROSS NEB TO IA BY 1/12Z.
   
   ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE -- NOW ANALYZED OVER S-CENTRAL IA...IS FCST
   TO CONTINUE DEEPENING AND MOVE NEWD TOWARD LM AS MIDLEVEL WAVES
   APPROACH.  TRAILING COLD FRONT -- ANALYZED FROM NWRN MO SWWD ACROSS
   WRN OK -- SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS LOWER OH VALLEY AND MUCH OF
   IL/INDIANA...SEWD ACROSS AR AND NE TX...AND SWD ACROSS
   NWRN/N-CENTRAL TX...BY END OF PERIOD.  DRYLINE -- INITIALLY DRAWN
   FROM SW OK SWWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL TX -- WILL MOVE EWD FOR ANOTHER
   COUPLE HOURS OVER N-CENTRAL TX...THEN SHOULD BECOME QUASISTATIONARY
   FROM WRN PORTIONS N-CENTRAL TX SWWD ACROSS EDWARDS PLATEAU THROUGH
   MUCH OF EVENING...PERHAPS RETREATING WWD OVER SRN EDWARDS
   PLATEAU/RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT.  WARM FRONT OVER SERN IA AND
   NWRN IL SHOULD LIFT NEWD ACROSS ERN IA...NRN IL...INDIANA AND LOWER
   MI BY END OF PERIOD.
   
   ...MO TO SRN PLAINS...
   SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS -- INCLUDING GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
   SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING HAIL...SVR GUSTS AND TORNADOES --
   WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS CATEGORICAL MDT RISK AREA THROUGH EVENING
   HOURS.  REF WW 146/147 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR
   NEAR-TERM THREAT FROM IL-OK.  REF WW 148 FOR NOWCAST SVR THREAT OVER
   SRN OK AND NRN/CENTRAL TX.
   
   SVR POTENTIAL MAY BUILD FURTHER SWD ACROSS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL TX
   THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON AS STG HEATING...COMBINED WITH WEAKENING
   CINH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE...SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION.  ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY NOT BE AS
   GREAT OVER S-CENTRAL TX AS FARTHER N...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN
   FAVORABLE ACROSS THIS REGION BENEATH MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
   SPEED MAX.
   
   ...MID MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGIONS...
   SVR TSTMS ALSO MAY DEVELOP NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS NRN MO AND
   SRN IA N OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND...E OF COLD FRONT AND S OF WARM
   FRONT...IN ZONE OF SFC HEATING AND ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  BY
   AROUND 06Z...BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME ORGANIZED FROM INDIANA
   AND IL SWWD ACROSS AR...SHIFTING EWD THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS.  LOW
   LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GREATER WITH SWD EXTENT...WHILE
   DEEP-LAYER KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE ALONG VIRTUALLY ITS
   ENTIRE LENGTH.  MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS...WITH ISOLATED
   HAIL POSSIBLE...AND HAIL POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT GREATER ACROSS MID MS
   VALLEY REGION THAN FARTHER NE.  LINE SHOULD REACH OH...KY...TN AND
   NRN MS BY 12Z...MAINTAINING AT LEAST MRGL WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL.  SVR
   PROBABILITIES DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT AND WITH TIME
   OVERNIGHT...GIVEN NOCTURNAL NEAR-SFC COOLING...ALTHOUGH STG/ELEVATED
   WAA REGIME WILL SUPPORT SOME WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS OH AND WRN
   PORTIONS TN/KY.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/31/2008
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z