SPC AC 020552
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CST SAT MAR 01 2008
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF KS AND SWRN MO
SWD ACROSS WRN AR/OK AND INTO CENTRAL TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE/POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO DIG/AMPLIFY WITH TIME...WHILE SHIFTING SLOWLY SEWD
INTO/ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.
AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING WRN TROUGH
WILL ALSO MOVE STEADILY SEWD WITH TIME. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD ACROSS IA/KS TO A FRONTAL WAVE
INVOF THE TX PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES SSWWD INTO CENTRAL TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THIS FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT --
ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.
...PARTS OF KS/MO SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...
GRADUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR...AS LOW-LEVEL SLYS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. A LEAD SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...LIKELY RETARDING
DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TO SOME DEGREE. BY
AFTERNOON...MIXED-LAYER CAPE GENERALLY AOB 1000 J/KG IS FORECAST
ACROSS PARTS OF WRN MO AND SERN KS...MUCH OF OK...AND SWD INTO TX --
WITHIN WARM SECTOR BOUNDED TO THE NORTH BY THE COLD FRONT AND TO THE
WEST BY AN ADVANCING DRY LINE.
ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT CAPPING ACROSS MUCH OF TX AND THE LACK OF A
CLEAR LOW-LEVEL FOCUSING MECHANISM MAY HINDER AFTERNOON STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE FREE WARM SECTOR. INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS KS DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL SHIFT/EXPAND SEWD ACROSS OK AND
PERHAPS THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
OTHER/MORE ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN OK AND SWD INTO
WRN N TX INVOF ADVANCING DRYLINE.
SOMEWHAT MODEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OFFSET BY A FAVORABLE WIND
FIELD...CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT.
THUS...DEVELOPING STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE/BECOME SEVERE. WHILE
PRIMARY STORM MODE INVOF FROM SHOULD BE LINEAR -- POSSIBLY WITH
SMALL-SCALE BOWS...ANY STORMS WHICH COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OR SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE WOULD LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR. ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.
DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING SEWD
ACROSS PARTS OF MO/ERN OK/AR AND TX...WITH GREATEST SEVERE THREAT
LIKELY SHIFTING SWD WITH TIME INTO CENTRAL TX AS 100 KT H5 JET DIGS
SEWD ACROSS FAR W TX LATE. WHILE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT
WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
..GOSS.. 03/02/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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