ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
   WOUS40 KWNS 171644
   ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-180045-
   
   PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1144 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2007
   
   ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AND
   TONIGHT...
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE
   EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS
   THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
   
   THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
   
          ARKANSAS
          SOUTHERN MISSOURI
          CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
          EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS
   
   SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MISSSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTH INTO
   THE LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS
   
   A POWERFUL JET STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
   MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY EARLY THURSDAY
   AS ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO
   NORTHWEST IOWA.
   
   THE SURFACE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN MARKEDLY...DRAWING A BROAD PLUME OF
   WARM AND VERY HUMID AIR NORTH ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF THE
   PLAINS...THE OZARKS AND THE LOW TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
   
   THE COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG WINDS AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND
   ALOFT...INCREASING MOISTURE...AND ASCENT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
   FOR ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS KNOWN AS SUPERCELLS.  GIVEN THE BROAD
   AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SUCH
   DEVELOPMENT...A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE LONG-LIVED AND PRODUCE
   STRONG TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   WHILE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
   TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHERN
   MISSOURI AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...A THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL ALSO
   EXIST FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. 
   THIS THREAT LIKELY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE SURFACE LOW AND JET
   STREAM WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN.
   
   THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
   SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
   RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
   
   ..RACY/CORFIDI.. 10/17/2007
   
   $$