Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

   SPC AC 131957
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0257 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2007
   
   VALID 132000Z - 141200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF WRN KS/WRN HALF OF
   OK/ERN TX PANHANDLE AND NWRN TX...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PA SOUTHWARD INTO FL...
   
   ...ERN U.S...
   AT MID AFTERNOON...WV IMAGERY INDICATES THAT EMBEDDED MID LEVEL
   SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE ROTATING CYCLONICALLY DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
   UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THE LEADING
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SEWD THROUGH FAR NRN FL...THE SECOND WAS
   MOVING SWD ALONG THE OH/PA BORDER WHILE ANOTHER WAS MOVING SSWWD
   THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND. THESE SYSTEMS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY COLD
   MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
   SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SWD MOVING SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
   THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THAT SEVERE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY
   THREAT INITIALLY. HOWEVER...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   STORM DOWNDRAFTS CONGEALING INTO SMALL MCS CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY
   RESULT IN AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON. REFERENCE WW/S 391...392...393.
   
   ...SWRN KS/NERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN HALF OF OK AND NWRN TX...
   LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED
   OVER EXTREME SERN CO AND WILL DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY ESEWD DURING THE
   PERIOD...DUE TO BLOCKING RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. DRY
   SLOT HAS CIRCULATED AROUND LOW CENTER AND PUNCHED NWD THROUGH OK AND
   INTO SWRN KS...AIDING IN STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STRONG
   HEATING THIS MORNING HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY.
   STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IN MORE STRONGLY FORCED REGION ACROSS
   NWRN OK AND SWRN KS...AND SHEAR/INSTABILITY IS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS
   WITH SEVERE HAIL/WIND...REFERENCE WW 394. 
   
   OTHER SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY
   FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE SWD INTO NWRN TX. THE STORMS IN NWRN TX
   WILL BE IN A WEAKLY SHEARED/LESS FORCED ENVIRONMENT AND WILL LIKELY
   WEAKEN QUICKLY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WHILE THE STORMS FURTHER NORTH
   CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS.
   
   ..IMY.. 06/13/2007
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z