The SPC is forecasting ...severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central plains this afternoon and tonight.... Please read the latest public statement about this event.
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SPC AC 061244 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 AM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN OK...THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WEST CENTRAL TX INTO EASTERN SD... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHERN GA ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA... ...ANOTHER ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF KS/OK/TX... LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS MORNING...WHILE IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS AZ INTO NM. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE THE PLAINS WITH ANOTHER SYNOPTICALLY FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SEVERE STORMS... CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS DUE TO OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND ONGOING STORMS. ...OK/KS/WEST TX... ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM EASTERN KS - NORTHWEST OK - THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING...ALLOWING ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO RETREAT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES WIDELY IN WHERE BOUNDARIES AND CONVECTION WILL FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN FROM DDC AREA SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S PROVIDING MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG. SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS AXIS...PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS BGS AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL ONCE AGAIN FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH CAPE VALUES...LOW LCLS...AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. NORTHWARD EXTENT OF GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. HAVE THEREFORE FOCUSED THE MDT RISK OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS. FARTHER EAST OVER EASTERN KS AND CENTRAL OK...FORCING MECHANISMS ARE HARDER TO FIND. HOWEVER...12Z SOUNDINGS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST CAP WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER TODAY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS MAY ALLOW DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING TO INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS JUST SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...SOUTHEAST STATES... NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TODAY FROM SOUTHERN GA DOWN THE FL PENINSULA. FULL SUNSHINE AND AMPLE MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER FLOW PARALLEL TO SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND AID IN A RISK OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. ..HART/GRAMS.. 05/06/2007 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z