Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

   SPC AC 011259
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0659 AM CST THU MAR 01 2007
   
   VALID 011300Z - 021200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
   MS...MUCH OF AL...SOUTHERN GA...AND NORTHERN FL...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF IL/IN ACROSS MOST
   OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EAST TX INTO THE MID
   ATLANTIC REGION...
   
   ...MAJOR OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY AND
   TONIGHT...
   
   VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH IS BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED
   THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THIS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
   100+ KT MID LEVEL JET MAX IS FORECAST TO ROTATE RAPIDLY EASTWARD
   TODAY INTO THE TN VALLEY.  WIDESPREAD EXTREMELY STRONG VERTICAL
   SHEAR PROFILES...COUPLED WITH RAPIDLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
   AND INSTABILITY...INDICATE THE THREAT OF A LARGE OUTBREAK OF
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  SOME
   OF THE TORNADOES MAY BE STRONG OR VIOLENT.
   
   ...MID MS VALLEY...
   FIRST WAVE OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER
   PARTS OF SOUTHERN MO AND NORTHERN AR.  THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN
   CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES...AS WELL AS DAMAGING WINDS AND
   HAIL...FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS THEY TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD THE MS
   RIVER.  SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOW THIS
   MORNING DUE TO MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION.  HOWEVER...UPPER TROUGH
   IS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD AREA...AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TX AND LA BY MID
   MORNING.
   
   ...GULF COAST REGION...
   PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
   OVER EASTERN LA AND MS BY MID MORNING...AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH.  THIS
   REGION WILL BE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1000
   J/KG EXPECTED.  VERY IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE IN PLACE
   AND WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY
   FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG/
   VIOLENT TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THIS ACTIVITY
   WILL LIKELY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF AL/GA AND INTO NORTHERN
   FL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  RAPID MOVEMENT OF UPPER
   TROUGH...STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS...AND QUALITY OF RETURNING LOW
   LEVEL MOISTURE ALL POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OUTBREAK OF
   TORNADOES TODAY.
   
   ...CAROLINAS...
   WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEAST
   STATES...AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AND POWERFUL COLD FRONT.  AN
   ORGANIZED LINE OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS MAY TRACK
   ALL THE WAY TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY 02/12Z.
   
   ..HART.. 03/01/2007
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z