SPC AC 280837
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0237 AM CST TUE MAR 28 2006
   
   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS ACROSS
   PORTIONS MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PROGRESSIVE AND HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL FEATURE STRONG
   MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
   OVER NERN PACIFIC W OF CA/ORE COAST.  THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH
   WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS WRN CONUS THROUGH DAY-2...THEN FROM CENTRAL/SRN
   ROCKIES ACROSS PLAINS TO MID/UPPER MS VALLEY THURSDAY. OPERATIONAL
   MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD CONSENSUS WITH TIMING OF THIS
   FEATURE...BUT NOT NECESSARILY AMPLITUDE.  ASSOCIATED DEEP SFC LOW
   WILL EJECT NEWD TOWARD UPPER MS VALLEY...WHILE COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD
   OVER CENTRAL PLAINS AND SRN HIGH PLAINS.  DRYLINE WILL MOVE EWD
   ACROSS PORTIONS KS/OK AND WRN TX BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY COLD
   FRONT.
   
   ...GREAT PLAINS TO MS VALLEY...
   SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
   EVENT...HOWEVER SEVERAL IMPORTANT DETAILS CREATE COMPLEX AND
   CONDITIONAL FORECAST SCENARIO FOR THIS PERIOD.
   
   WARM SECTOR MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH DAY-3 AMIDST
   BROAD PLUME OF BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE ADVECTION.  STRONG LARGE SCALE
   ASCENT ALOFT AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE EACH EXPECTED TO
   IMPINGE UPON MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS E OF DRYLINE -- FROM LATE
   DAY-2 THROUGHOUT DAY-3.  THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ONE OR MORE
   CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES DURING MORNING HOURS OVER CENTRAL/SRN
   PLAINS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE GIVEN STRONG SHEAR PROFILES. 
   POCKETS OF AIR MASS RECOVERY ARE POSSIBLE DURING AFTERNOON...BOTH IN
   COLD-CORE REGION OF CENTRAL PLAINS AND IA JUST AHEAD OF CYCLONE
   TRACK...AND IN CORRIDOR BETWEEN DRYLINE...COLD FRONT AND MORNING
   ACTIVITY.  ONE OR MORE BANDS OF FORCING FOR SEVERE CONVECTION MAY
   EVOLVE FROM AFTERNOON ACTIVITY AND SHIFT EWD ACROSS MS VALLEY REGION
   AFTER DARK.  ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE MAY DEVELOP INVOF
   SUBTLE WARM FRONT LIFTING NEWD OVER MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY
   REGIONS AS WELL.
   
   UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF AFTERNOON
   DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDE A MORE FOCUSED AREA OF HIGHER PROBABILITIES
   ATTM.  HOWEVER...SOME PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY NEED CATEGORICAL
   RISK UPGRADE IN SUCCEEDING OUTLOOKS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/28/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z