Jun 20, 2006 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jun 20 17:31:39 UTC 2006
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
Categorical Graphic
20060620 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20060620 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
   SPC AC 201730
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
   LAKES/OH VALLEY...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS...
   
   ...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...
   
   MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SPEED/MOVEMENT OF SRN
   CANADA/NRN PLAINS TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY
   WEDNESDAY.  THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS NRN WI/U.P.
   OF MI WHILE WLY FLOW...H5 SPEEDS ON THE ORDER OF 50-60KT...SHOULD
   INCREASE ALONG SRN FRINGES OF THIS FEATURE FROM SRN IA INTO SRN
   ONTARIO.  THIS INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT...COMBINED WITH
   RECOVERING/MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR
   POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM EVENT DAY2...WITH THE
   POSSIBILITY FOR LONG-LIVED ORGANIZED DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   LATEST THINKING IS SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL DRIVE
   EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY
   WITH BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
   THIS ACTIVITY FROM LOWER MI...WSWWD INTO ERN IA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 
   IT APPEARS CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP/INTENSIFY BY MID DAY...POSSIBLY
   ALONG LEADING EDGE OF LATE DAY1 PLAINS CLUSTER...OVER PORTIONS OF
   IA/WI/NRN IL.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SEE UPSCALE GROWTH BENEATH DEEP
   WLY FLOW WITH SUSTAINED SWLY LLJ AIDING INFLOW.  WITH TIME BOW TYPE
   STRUCTURES SHOULD EVOLVE WHICH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD INTO LOWER
   MI/NRN IND/OH BY LATE AFTERNOON.  DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE
   PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...ESPECIALLY IF LONG-LIVED MCS CAN EVOLVE
   ACROSS THIS REGION.
   
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS...
   
   SEVERAL WEAK VORT MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN WNWLY FLOW SHOULD APPROACH
   THE CNTRL ROCKIES WHICH SHOULD AID ELY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT ACROSS
   SERN WY/ERN CO.  700MB THERMAL GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED ACROSS THIS
   REGION WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SAGGING SWD TOWARD I-70.  THIS
   COOLING ALOFT...COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE
   CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER NERN CO.  SUPERCELLS
   SHOULD EVOLVE QUICKLY ONCE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS THEN SPREAD SEWD
   ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD WRN KS.  SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
   SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS BY STORM MATURATION FOR
   ISOLATED TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.  THIS REGION MAY NEED TO BE
   UPGRADED IN LATER OUTLOOKS...ESPECIALLY IF AN IDENTIFIABLE ORGANIZED
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THIS REGION NEAR CONVECTIVE CLIMAX.
   
   ..DARROW.. 06/20/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z