SPC AC 061735
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1235 PM CDT THU APR 06 2006
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NE MS...NRN AL...SCNTRL
   TN AND FAR NW GA...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   MS...AL...TN...GA...LA...ERN AR...WRN NC AND FAR WRN SC...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY...OH VALLEY...SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND IMMEDIATE GULF
   COAST...
   
   CORRECTED FOR WORDING LAST PARAGRAPH
   
   A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL SHIFT SEWD
   INTO THE OZARKS FRIDAY AHEAD OF A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE WARM
   SECTOR ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY
   FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OUTBREAK IS
   EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NRN AL...NE MS...SCNTRL
   TN AND FAR NW GA.
   
   ...TN VALLEY...
   SEVERAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
   PERIOD IN THE MID-MS VALLEY WILL DRIFT QUICKLY NEWD AS A 90-100 KT
   MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS NEWD OUT OF THE CNTRL PLAINS TROUGH. THIS WILL
   INCREASE MOISTURE ADVECTION STRENGTHENING A 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
   TRANSPORTING MID TO UPPER 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS NNEWD ACROSS THE TN
   VALLEY. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHUNTING MORNING CONVECTION
   AWAY FROM THE HIGH RISK AREA DURING THE MORNING LEAVING THE AIRMASS
   UNDISTURBED MIDDAY FRIDAY ACROSS MS...AL...TN AND NRN GA. AS STORMS
   INITIATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY DUE TO THE
   STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL JET. NAMKF
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TUPELO MS...FLORENCE ALABAMA AND HUNTSVILLE
   ALABAMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON SEEM REASONABLE WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY (MLCAPE VALUES 2500-3000 J/KG)...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES
   AT/ABV 60 KT AND IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES (0-3 KM SRH
   AT/ABV 350 M2/S2). IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
   DISCRETE FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN
   ADDITION...LCL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW WHICH COMBINED
   WITH THE INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE VERY
   FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. LONG-TRACK STRONG OR EVEN VIOLENT TORNADOES
   WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK ALONG ANY
   PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARIES OR CONVERGENCE ZONES. THE
   INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.0 C/KM
   SHOWN ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE
   HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WITH THE SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO
   BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS.
   
   STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY EXPAND DURING THE EVENING AS THE
   UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY
   GRADUALLY ORGANIZE INTO A LINEAR ORIENTATION BY LATE EVENING...THE
   WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES AND EXPANDS NWD ACROSS THE
   HIGH RISK AREA. THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED
   WITH SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOW ECHOES THAT DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
   EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP
   OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES AND A COLD FRONT
   ADVANCES EWD ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ...OH VALLEY...
   VERY STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
   FRIDAY MORNING AS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION SPREADS NEWD ACROSS THE
   REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY DELAY DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH
   VALLEY AND UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE NAM AND GFS INITIATE
   POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF A FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY EXTENDING WSWD TO ENEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOW SUFFICIENT
   INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES THAT SHOULD BE
   FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
   KY...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 F SHOULD ALLOW
   MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY
   HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...SFC-BASED STORMS APPEAR
   LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...GREATER
   MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL...WIND
   DAMAGE AND A FEW TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK ENEWD ACROSS
   THE REGION. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS
   WITH THE THREAT GRADUALLY BECOMING MARGINAL TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS
   INSTABILITY DECREASES.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 04/06/2006
   
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