Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

   SPC AC 150557
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1157 PM CST TUE NOV 14 2006
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN LA...THE SRN 2/3 OF
   MS AND AL...THE FL PANHANDLE...AND W CENTRAL AND SWRN GA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER ERN OK -- WITHIN LARGE TROUGH OVER THE ERN
   2/3 OF THE CONUS -- IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE
   TN VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THIS FEATURE WILL BE
   ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...INCLUDING A 60 KT
   SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE LOW AND 100-PLUS KT CYCLONIC
   MID-LEVEL JET S OF LOW.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...990 MB LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM AR NEWD ACROSS
   THE MID MS VALLEY INTO KY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE TRAILING COLD
   FRONT MOVES QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.  THOUGH THE GFS IS
   FASTER WITH THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...MODELS AGREE THAT THE
   FRONT SHOULD AT LEAST APPROACH THE GA ATLANTIC COAST BY 16/12Z.
   
   ...THE SOUTHEAST...
   POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE
   ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS PERIOD...THOUGH QUESTIONS REGARDING DEGREE
   OF INSTABILITY LINGER.
   
   WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
   THE SOUTHEAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITHIN BROAD ZONE OF WARM
   ADVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION --
   PARTICULARLY ACROSS TN/AL/GA -- SHOULD BE ELEVATED.  HOWEVER...VERY
   STRONG WIND FIELD SUGGESTS AN ONGOING SEVERE THREAT AT THE START OF
   THE PERIOD IN AND NEAR THE WARM SECTOR -- I.E. ACROSS SERN AR AND LA
   INTO MUCH OF MS AND SWRN AL.
   
   WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT THE
   POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION...WHILE HINDERING THE NWD MOVEMENT OF
   THE TROPICAL WARM FRONT.  THEREFORE...NWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT
   TOWARD THE TN VALLEY IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ATTM.  HOWEVER...IT
   APPEARS THAT MOIST GULF AIR WILL MOVE AT LEAST AS FAR NWD AS NRN
   MS/CENTRAL AL...AND LATER INTO W CENTRAL AND SWRN GA. 
   THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS
   THIS REGION.
   
   STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE A MIX OF PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELLS AND A
   COMPLEX LINE -- INCLUDING BOWS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS -- ROUGHLY
   ALONG FRONT.  GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...SEVERAL TORNADOES ARE
   EXPECTED -- INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEW WILL BE
   STRONG/SIGNIFICANT.  WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE
   -- AS INCREASINGLY-MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF LOW/INVOF FRONT
   SUPPORTS A MORE ORGANIZED LINE LATER IN THE PERIOD.
   
   THOUGH A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST OVER CENTRAL
   AND NRN GA WHERE DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY BE MORE
   DIFFICULT...SELY INFLOW OF HIGHER THETA-E BOUNDARY LAYER OFF THE
   ATLANTIC MAY SUPPORT A SECONDARY SEVERE WEATHER MAXIMUM LATE IN THE
   PERIOD ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF GA AND THE CAROLINAS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 11/15/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z