Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

   SPC AC 241802
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0102 PM CDT MON APR 24 2006
   
   VALID 241630Z - 251200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS
   AND WESTERN/NORTHERN OK...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL TX ACROSS MUCH OF
   OK/KS AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...
   
   ...REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING OVER PARTS OF KS/OK...
   
   ...KS/OK...
   LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT THIS MORNING OVER THE WESTERN
   STATES...WITH BAND OF 40-60 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS
   EXTENDING FROM AZ/NM INTO WESTERN KS.  THESE WIND FIELDS ARE
   FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
   KS/OK...ALONG WITH INCREASED LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. 
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
   KS...AND SOUTHWARD ALONG DRYLINE INTO ACROSS WESTERN OK. 
   SIGNIFICANT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
   WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE.
   
   MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LYING
   ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND NORTHERN OK.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE
   THAT BACKED FLOW NORTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL WEAKEN BUT REMAIN IN
   PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS ALSO HINT AT SECONDARY SURFACE
   LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHWEST OK ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 
   THIS WILL TEND TO BACK LOW LEVEL WINDS FARTHER SOUTH ALONG DRYLINE
   ACROSS WESTERN OK AS WELL.  INCREASING WIND FIELDS ALOFT THIS
   AFTERNOON WILL YIELD LOCAL EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES OVER 200 M2/S2
   AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS ACROSS THIS REGION. 
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS
   AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISE THROUGH THE 60S BENEATH STEEP LAPSE
   RATES...WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG.
   
   EXPECT STORMS TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY NEAR SURFACE LOW/OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARIES NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH DEVELOPMENT
   SOUTHWARD ALONG DRYLINE BY EARLY EVENING.  VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE
   LIKELY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
   TORNADOES.  AT THIS TIME...GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADOES APPEARS TO
   BE IN VICINITY OF TRIPLE POINT/REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM SOUTH
   CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL OK.  FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MAY
   TEND TO FOCUS STORMS INTO SQUALL LINE DURING THE EVENING WITH AN
   ENHANCED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS MUCH CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND
   SOUTHEAST KS.
   
   ...TX...
   STRONG HEATING ALONG SURFACE DRYLINE MAY ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED
   SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL TX THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING.  WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MINIMAL FORCING
   SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN VERY ISOLATED AND MAY WEAKEN SHORTLY
   AFTER SUNSET.
   
   ..HART/GUYER.. 04/24/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z