Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

   SPC AC 061623
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1123 AM CDT THU APR 06 2006
   
   VALID 061630Z - 071200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR S/SE
   NEB...ROUGHLY THE ERN HALF OF KS...AND A SMALL PART OF WRN MO....
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM ERN
   NEB/WRN IA SWD TO ERN OK AND WRN AR....
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT AND HIGH
   RISK AREAS...FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY....
   
   ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM SE NEB ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO INTO ERN OK AND
   WRN AR...
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO MO/AR TONIGHT...
   WITHIN A BROAD MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AN INTENSE
   MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ROTATING EWD FROM NM TOWARD OK/KS THIS
   AFTERNOON.  A SURFACE CYCLONE NOW IN E CENTRAL NEB WILL PERSIST
   TODAY...WITH ADDITIONAL CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED INVOF SW INTO CENTRAL
   KS IN RESPONSE TO 210 M HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB DURING THE AFTERNOON.
    THIS KS LOW SHOULD THEN ROTATE NNEWD TOWARD NEB THIS EVENING AND
   EVOLVE INTO A DEEP OCCLUDED SYSTEM OVERNIGHT.
   
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWD FROM TX/LA/AR/OK NWD TO
   WRN MO...KS/NEB.  REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEALED A PRONOUNCED EML
   ABOVE THE MOIST LAYER...WITH MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
   UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  GIVEN THE SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER OBSERVED
   ACROSS S TX...AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE
   60-62 F RANGE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...AS OPPOSED TO RECENT NAM
   FORECASTS OF MID 60S.  VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ALONG WITH
   AN EROSION OF THE CAP FROM BELOW BY HEATING AND FROM THE W BY ASCENT
   WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE...WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING THREAT FOR
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY 18-20Z NEAR THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND
   DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW INVOF CENTRAL KS.  STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN
   COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO S CENTRAL/SE NEB AND ERN
   KS...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE SWD ALONG THE PACIFIC COLD
   FRONT IN OK TO THE E OF I-35 BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
   WITHIN THE INITIAL MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WHERE MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD
   REACH 1500-2000 J/KG.  THE FORECAST ORIENTATION OF THE MID-UPPER
   FLOW RELATIVE TO THE INITIATING SURFACE BOUNDARIES...ALONG WITH THE
   STRONG FORCING WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE...SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY
   OF MIXED MODE CONVECTION WITH BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE
   SEGMENTS ACROSS KS/NEB.  AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE- DEWPOINT SPREADS MAY
   BE MARGINALLY LARGE FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES...THOUGH FORECAST
   HODOGRAPHS STILL APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES.  OTHERWISE...LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.  FARTHER S
   AND LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
   DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ACROSS ERN OK/AR/SRN MO INTO EARLY TONIGHT. 
   TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD
   BE STRONG...GIVEN AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THIS EVENING AND A
   MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER W AND N.  
   
   ...MS AND MO VALLEYS TODAY...
   ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN A SWATH FROM ERN SD TO
   SE IA INTO MO/IL IN A REGION OF PRONOUNCED WAA.  STEEP MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED ELEVATED CAPE WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THIS CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 
   FARTHER S...OTHER ELEVATED STORMS ARE FORMING ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AR
   INTO NE TX.  LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY...THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS COULD BECOME POSSIBLE AS THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER GRADUALLY DESTABILIZES.
   
   ..THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 04/06/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z